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To: Bucky Katt who wrote (5071)	5/31/2001 7:51:25 PM
From: MB6	Respond to of 48461

Re: Article I think the female economist in this article is overly optimistic. She leaves out one very important issue and that is personal and corporate "debt". This debt is higher than its ever been and much higher than in the early nineties recession. I believe she is basing her hope on the increased liquidity being provided by the fed right now. This is just adding to that debt. At some point this will catch up with corporate America. My biggest fear right now is that one of the major financial institutions goes under and this sets off a chain reaction. I have a number of local friends in the banking and real estate business and some of the things I am hearing are absolutely frightening. Some of these guys have been in business for a long time and they have never seen these amounts of defaults and foreclosures in their career. What's really frightening about this is that the recent massive corporate layoffs haven't even filtered into the economy yet! The fed can only cover so many defaults before something gives or the dollar becomes totally worthless because of non-stop printing. This is why I think the article is overly optimistic. No mention of debt. Hey, I would love to believe in the second half recovery too but, I don't see it happening.