Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (4082)	5/31/2001 10:03:53 PM
From: smolejv@gmx.net	Respond to of 74559

>>Between the US, Germany, Japan, China, Canada, and Hong Kong, I think we got the important places covered :0) << Great thing also that the posts dont use their mouthwork only, but eyes and ears as well. And, Id mention Austria, we were in dire need of somebody with a direct line to Austrian school of economy; [edit]from Jay >>I do note a sudden influx of refugees from the Clown-free thread, and I think it is great!<< Is that the "send-in-the-clowns" moment? Mass expulsion from the Clown-free-zone paradise:^? Is that IT (cf Stephen King)? I'm doing that on purpose to stem the tide/possibility of morons-in-the-making taking over. dj

To: TobagoJack who wrote (4082)	6/1/2001 5:14:28 AM
From: Step1	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 74559

Jay yes I will get the number somehow. Today I was going to stop by the licensing office on my way home but was running late and figure it would probably be just a tad easier to phone in and see if they even have that number on hand before going. For private cars though I can assure you that looking with my "eyes on the ground" , it is nowhere near 10 years for private vehicles. Unemployment isnt that bad yet here despite all the news reports and with deflation in just about everything, people are actually even better off in a lot of cases. Everything has noticeably become cheaper, from clothing to phone calls, airline tickets to restaurant meals etc etc, without off course mentionning the price of basic "core" items as food and real estate. Despite all this, J cos have been very reluctant to institute large scale lay offs like you would see in the US, so the Japanese consumer has been doing quite good. (on cars here) Besides, Japanese people treat their cars to all sorts of little pampering and beauty care, as living in crowded cities affords little privacy and the car is actually a great place to feel some (privacy). There are also a number of SUVs here on the road even though gasoline is around 98 yen per liter and licensing fees are based on engine displacement with a steep premium once you get over 1600 cc. Where I have lived for over 8 years now, we have never seen an inch of snow, yet there are tons of SUVs ... To wrap up , let me make two points clearer (all IMHO of course) 1. New entrants you havent much heard about are eating high cost dinausaurs ` lunch boxes. Everything got cheaper, so with some extra spending money left over from other things, why not spend it on a nice car? (my view) The tightening of the purse strings here as certainly happened in a way that has made industry feel some massive pain but the consumer still shops and almost drops .... unreal. However, gone are the days when people bought something BECAUSE it was expensive, and rather the consumer is a lot more savvy now. New entrants have also hurt old established high cost ones (for example , buying clothes at Uniqlo instead of at a large department store, re SOGO bankruptcy); and deflation has reduced margins for most companies (except DoCoMo , ;-) ) yet the comsumer gets a lot more... My co-workers were all going out to party tonight, 98 yen for draft beer which would have cost at least 200 yen 5 years ago plus you often had to pay a seating charge of 500 yen back then ... 2. Businesses that were around before the bubble, gambled heavily in stocks and real estate, expanded at the top (ok almost all of them) have such a cost structure that even small decreases in total spending by consumers can gut them (which is happening slowly as the J government moves away from bailouts, again Sogo Dept store as a prime example). New businesses don`t have all that dead weight so they have a completely different set of parameters. Ok I `ll need a couple more numbers to finish this post... 3. What I think is really happening so far, is that uncertainty about the future (re: large government public works and deficits, aging society, general economic trends and declining population) ensures that people are fearing the future and therefore are spending less and less, and that, more than unemployment has resulted in year on year decreases in revenues for consumer businesses. 4. With all this said, I am not bullish on Japan, maybe on the yen, but not on Japan, not at least until it gets to 8000 on the nikkei will I bother to have a look. If I am wrong, then I have lost nothing but opportunity, no hard cash. I personally think that when the USA `s economy goes into the toilet, the real fun will begin in Japan. This could get ugly ... The above of course all in my very humble opinion. Stephan