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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: elmatador who wrote (4105)	6/1/2001 11:28:05 AM
From: LLCF	Respond to of 74559

<But if capital flight keep coming to the US as it has been the case in the past, you can keep doing well without much problem.> I don't know what you mean by this... if you mean the $US... OK, if you mean the economy, it is not clear. If the inflows are buying worthless .com stocks it's not doing a lick for the economy. <See, everytime there an economic meltdown somewhere, there is one attractor to all the cash flying out those places, South America, Russia, Asia...> Yes, no doubt... but you have to realize that so far the U.S. economy continues to perform [last few months not withstanding]. It is not clear what will happen if we have a real recession... there may be quite a surprise in store for those that have thrown their money at U.S. securities markets. <Besides that, let me give you an example: The capital I defend most (my 5-year old daughters school tuition already saved)- I keep in no other currency but USD in an offshore account. So if we foreigners keep a demand for a good (USD)that is only made in the US, the USD dollar will always keep strong. > Yes, so if you're daughter is going to school in the U.S. in the future you are hedged. Unfortunately the rest of your example is contrary to the agregate... ie. U.S. citizens buy way more goods and services abroad than you buy here... so your resoning is exactly opposite of reality. IF I were you I'd be careful holding too many US$, I'd be in the Euro... I think you're going to get KILLED holding US$, JMO of course. DAK