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Gold/Mining/Energy : Petrokazakhstan Inc. -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: cooliemon who wrote (1674)	6/1/2001 9:50:00 AM
From: forecaster	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2357

Coolie: Bernie will not agree to US$11.36! A simple fair estimate of NAV should start with the Present Worth Value of the reserves. At 10% discount, I calculated the value at over US$40 per fully diluted share. After profits tax (30%), excess profits tax (15%) and repatriation tax (4.25%), the value is still over US$24. You would have to add all other assets like the refinery, Druzhba terminal, road from Kumkol to Kyzylorda, fixed assets at Kumkol and working capital. And the reserves do not include the newly discovered East Kumkol field and the enormous potential of the Grabens. I don't know how to answer your question whether or not the current takeover has been staged. This is rare, but not unheard of. There would have to be a very strong reason to do that, not just to create interest. Perhaps, a hidden threat of an extremely low takeover bid coming from outside Kazakhstan, or having a line-up of serious potential buyers previously interested in Alibekmola, or even both. Is it early June yet? Forecaster