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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Road Walker who wrote (136459)	6/1/2001 10:41:43 AM
From: dale_laroy	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 186894

>Can I offer an unsolicited and humble opinion on what could take place, at least in the PC marketplace? Microsoft is going to release their new OS in October. Starting sometime in the next three-four months, individuals and companies will begin to defer PC purchases figuring why buy now and upgrade later, when I can buy a machine factory loaded with W-XP in October. In August/September, box makers, retailers and distributors will cut inventories, boxes loaded with the old OS will be difficult to sell after XP's release, nobody will want to have that inventory. With a WAG of three to six weeks lead time on microprocessors, I would guess that Intel's business will hit a slump in and after July. That's the bad news.< Or perhaps purchasers, wary about Windows XP, will rush out to buy PCs before October in order to insure they don't get stuck with Windows XP. >The good news is that with the introduction of XP, the sales channels will have to replenish their inventories. With a lead time of three to six weeks for bringing in microprocessors before the boxes ship, that should give Intel a spike in business starting in early September.< This effect could be amplified if purchasers attempt to get in under the wire before XP ships and manufacturers mistake this for a real recovery. >Many analyst believe we will start to see a PC replacement cycle beginning in the 4th quarter, from the PC's bought pre-Y2K, that will become fully depreciated. At that time Intel should have 2+ GHz on .13, that will make the 300-600 MHz machines bought in 1999 seem very slow.< Yes, a 2+ GHz P4 should be faster than just about any 300-600 MHz x86 processor out there. But Intel is anticipating the next major replacement cycle to start in Q2 2002. Of course, this could have something to do with the potential that it will take until Q2 2002 for Intel's 0.13-micron process technology to get back on track after the SVGI delays. > So my very humble guess is that Intel's business will suffer through most of the second and third quarter. There should be a lot of doomsayers right through the summer, but Intel should give a very positive 3rd quarter report (because of September sales) and guidance in October. I have no idea if or when the stock will start to go up in anticipation of a good IAG 4th quarter and 2002. And if the communications division doesn't start to recover, it could be that increased sales in microprocessors just offset the losses on the other side.< I suspect communications will recover before processors. In any case, the natural yearly purchasing cycle should result in some recovery in H2 2001. If there is a major recovery in the PC sector it will probably be from the long awaited dual introductions of Palomino and Tualatin. >All speculation and guesses. Feel free to bookmark and let me know how wrong I was.< Same here.

To: Road Walker who wrote (136459)	6/4/2001 7:10:22 PM
From: Pigboy	Respond to of 186894

Getting to your post late. Thanks << Many analyst believe we will start to see a PC replacement cycle beginning in the 4th quarter, from the PC's bought pre-Y2K, that will become fully depreciated. >> Eww, don't tell me what the analysts are saying. ;-) I recall that once Win95 was finally officially released, the techs started to turn down shortly afterwards. But, there was a lot more hype in Win95 back then and i think it was released in the summer, not late fall. We'll have to see how Intel behaves after their call this week. Interesting that CY held up strongly after their words today. cheers pigboy