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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: t2 who wrote (77719)	6/1/2001 11:24:02 AM
From: Eddy Blinker	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

A bet against you.. New Vision, I just sold one nq01 futures contract short. What a show! Cosmetics a la " come up and see me some times" are wearing off. Sales don`t fall from heaven. Presently the whole P/E structure is overvalued. Regards, ED

To: t2 who wrote (77719)	6/1/2001 9:24:09 PM
From: cfoe	Respond to of 99985

Note - I've had this thread bookmarked for some time, but have not been keeping up with it. Decided to check in and am catching up with the last two days. I appreciate the quality of the discourse and plan to stay around. You wrote: employment numbers were good this morning; actually great numbers..of course I did not know that yesterday. Unemployment rate actually went down! While I would like to share your optimism (fits my personality) and agree with many of your arguments, I am not sure you can count on the above. Lawrence Kudlow (also an optimist and one of my heros) was on CNBC twice today - this morning when the employment numbers came out and again after the market closed. This morning he expressed a similar view to your's above. However, this afternoon (I guess after he had more time to parse the numbers) he was much more negative and concerned; he shifted his assessment of the numbers 180 degrees. He said the headline drop in the unemployment rate was misleading. The household survey showed a very large drop in both employment and in people looking for work. So the reason the u-rate dropped seems to be related to people dropping out of the job market, not a strengthening of same. Bottom line is he thought today's employment numbers were recessionary.

To: t2 who wrote (77719)	6/1/2001 10:53:00 PM
From: bobby beara	Respond to of 99985

Message 15836561 -underownership of tech stocks in mutual funds compared to last year and even earlier this year. Therefore, less supply.>>> NV at the top of the tech bubble rydex otc fund had around 8-9 times the assets the broader based spx funds, at the recent top otc had 3.5 times the broader based spx assets, if you count the sector funds the ratio goes up, because most of the sector funds still favor tech sure there is less supply after a 50-60% poof, but underownership - NOT. until about 96-97 tech was an given a similar percentage to most portfolios as airlines, drugs, banks etc., then it started to diverge as the public became aware of the tech revolution (that had been going on for 2 decades already -g-), after the 98 top, which saw the greatest disparity between bullish/bearish investors advisors since the 1987 top, the market completely diverged, old eco/new eco. markets tend to revert to the mean, it still looks like portfolio's are overbalanced tech, a comparison to an extreme like 99-00 is not historically valid. of course trader's love tech because of the emotional extremes and volatility, but the rydex traders haven't loved to short tech during this whole debacle in the last year the balance of long to short funds in rydex otc long to otc short has never gone below 9-1, absolute bottoms usually happen when everybody throws in the towel and everyone has given up hope. b