Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (106068)	6/1/2001 8:03:56 PM
From: NOW	Respond to of 436258

Yes, the real question is how long foreign countries will be willing or able to continually bend over for us and our wonderful green paper. It sounds so obvious that democracy itself should lead to higher equity prices, but even there I remain to be convinced.

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (106068)	6/1/2001 8:18:49 PM
From: KyrosL	Respond to of 436258

I can see this game lasting for a number of years more. After all, the US property and financial markets are very open and accessible to foreigners. Foreigners feel fairly safe holding US dollars because they know they can easily exchange them for a condo in Miami or a ranch in Montana or even a tech company. And for many of these foreigners the prices of US real estate still compare very favorably to prices in their own countries.

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (106068)	6/1/2001 8:23:12 PM
From: Davy Crockett	Respond to of 436258

could be wrong... but I think it was Jim Elder who said & I am paraphrasing "all good things must end <g> & at the beginning of a new bull market, a new guru will supplant the old one<s>. Peter

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (106068)	6/1/2001 9:03:27 PM
From: Lucretius	Respond to of 436258

yea, i read that one too.. he's gone nutball....

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (106068)	6/1/2001 11:33:16 PM
From: marginmike	Respond to of 436258

he still thinks 2002 we revist the bear market blues.

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (106068)	6/2/2001 12:43:04 AM
From: LLCF	Respond to of 436258

<Hays thesis that all the lesser nations will forever keep striving to flood the US with high quality goods at cheap prices regardless of US payment deficits strikes me as incredibly naive and chauvinisitc. > Interesting... that's what's been happening of course... who are we to call an end to it. Maybe he's saying the same thing... the trend is your friend. DAK

To: Crimson Ghost who wrote (106068)	6/4/2001 11:55:08 AM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

George, sometimes by mid 2002 to early 2003 we may see the bottom of the current bear market, the first cyclical bear market within the larger secular one. Hays is going to be disappointed, along with a host of other gooroos with whom he has aligned himself (the usual suspects more or less). regarding deflation and democracy, note that hyper-inflation is even MORE dangerous than deflation in this respect. destroy the value of money itself, and you get Adolf Hitler. keep the value of money intact in a deflationary depression, and you get statist semi-communist interventionists like FDR. and even though i despise FDR, i think he's to be preferred over Adolf. besides, while tech is clearly in a vicious deflationary spiral, the central bonkers are printing money like never before. as i've mentioned in the past, we seem to experience a strange mixture of inflation and deflation on the price front, with those areas that were subject to over and malinvestment in the past decade in deflation and the sectors that were neglected experiencing price inflation (most notably energy). regarding the US current account deficit, it is growing by leaps and bounds. this year it will likely reach 520 billion dollars, or slightly over 5% of GDP. this is unsustainable - and no-one really knows what to do about it, so they do nothing and hope that it will continue not to matter. after all the tried and tested mania method of combating imbalances is to let them grow even larger. similar to all other outgrowths of the bubble, it doesn't matter until it does. the question is really not IF it will have consequences, the question is only one of timing.