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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Madarasz who wrote (3968)	6/4/2001 12:51:04 PM
From: John Pitera	Respond to of 33421

Hi John, thanks for pointing out the 5 and 21 day Exponential Moving Average crossover on the daily Nasd. it happened last Wed-thurs. I do expect the NASD to trade down to 2030 or 1875 over the next 5 to 8 market days. We may rally to 2180 to 2225 today and tomorrow first. the 5 & 21 day exp crossover works wll in dynamic trending markets such as the NASD the past 18 months or a market like Natural Gas or the Euro over the past year or so. ultimately I expect the NASD to become less volatile and range bound and the 5 & 21 Day system will give poor performance. In fact when that happens I expect to see 4 or 5 signals all be whip-sawed and give buys and sells that are stopped out for losses. The DJIA the past 2 years has been a good example of a mostly rangebound market where not only would a trend system not work, but a system with very different parameters would give you trading profits. thanks for your help, John