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Pastimes : The California Energy Crisis - Information & Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DavesM who wrote (373)	6/2/2001 1:29:22 PM
From: Raymond Duray	Respond to of 1715

Hi DavesM, How much of your electric co-op's price increases are due to California? In the murky, secretive world of power marketing, I don't think I can provide you with a specific answer to that question. As a co-op, we are dependent in the extreme on BPA power. You may have read that the BPA is threatening to raise rates by 150 to 450% on Oct. 1 depending on how much load they can shed this summer. A couple of aluminum plants have left the system so far. What the BPA administrator did last year that I regard as completely irresponsible if not fraudulent was to commit the BPA system to sell 11,000 Mw of power, while the system only has 8,000 Mw of generating capacity on average, and even less now that the drought is on. This meant that as of last year, when this extra 3,000 Mw committment was taken, the administrator had to either be in collusion with the power marketers, seduced by them or a complete dufus not to realize that the supply squeeze was coming on. We will most likely never know because the internal politics of BPA are some of the most clandestine, secretive and anti-democratic of any agency of government that I've ever run into. Heck, I think we know more about the internal workings of the CIA. I thought Oregon and Washington got most of their power from Hydroelectric sources owned by the feds. The latest year for which I have reliable statistics is 1998, when Oregon was relying on hydroelectric generation for about 80% of its power needs. eia.doe.gov Washington State is at 77% as of 1998: eia.doe.gov The crux, of course, is that there will be essentially no new additional hydro coming on line. This means that growth must be accomplished by (most likely) the Northwest being just like the rest of the nation and adding natural gas fired combined cycle generation. We will not be adding enough capacity to meet the needs for this summer and we have been saddled by the BPA's bungled over-reaching with a completely untenable position in their ruined dream of a market. What percentage of your co-op's power are from long term contracts? 100% as far as I know. As we now know, only idiots and rubes buy on the spot market. <w> Best, Ray :)