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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (8435)	6/2/2001 8:15:47 PM
From: Trumptown	Respond to of 52237

<<...With the time lines lining up from an April low this year, we could repeat the trading range until this fall and not get a wave 5 decline until this winter>> - that seems most plausible to me...with the expectation of a recovery, I think any crash in the near future is unlikely. Then, if/when the recovery is a 'no show' (late fall), turn out the lights...and watch the 5th wave... If however, the economy responds, things will surely get interesting... SR

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (8435)	6/2/2001 11:23:46 PM
From: Mike M	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

If it were this simple Lee then we would all make money in the market but to whom would we sell. I have never seen the market crash with this much liquidity sloshing around and I don't think it is going to happen this time. Your analysis of circumstances is right on. We may well be looking at a more frightening bubble down the road than we experienced in Mar 2000. Then again, perhaps the economy will turn around and bail us out. Who knows; not you nor I. But we both suspect. I wouldn't be surprised if we do turn down Monday for a few days. We seem to be due for a 5th wave(not THE 5th wave). Trouble is so many people expect it. Makes a guy wonder. I have a feeling, however, that there is a very powerful surge in the near future and the pessimists will be wondering what hit them. A part of the problem plaguing most companies is the capital markets (yes another is demand)... That could well be partially remedied if the markets are indeed anticipating an improved economy. Your comment regarding secondary offerings is the "glass half empty" argument. Raising capital via secondary markets for healthy companies is reasonable and should not dilute earnings. You may be right that there is a fifth wave out there. Don't kid yourself that euphoria has somehow set in. The markets are going to do what they are going to do and most of the geniuses won't figure out how to make a dime. One thing I do believe is that bears make money, bulls make money and pigs get slaughtered. Anybody who doesn't watch his bet very closely will likely regret it...