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To: KyrosL who wrote (106143)	6/2/2001 8:01:24 PM
From: Shack	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Do you really think the US will be running surpluses without the surging revenues of the past 5 years? Good work was done but under very favourable conditions. Not to mention that the books of New York and California are back in deficit. The private sector credit risks are all that Noland talks about because the public debt/surplus does nothing to alleviate the private sector's systematic risk. The banks, GSE's, credit card companies, are all very vulnerable to the downturn which is still in its infancy. Debt must be deflated and I agree with you that if AG can pull it off without a depression, he is indeed a hero.

To: KyrosL who wrote (106143)	6/3/2001 4:50:49 PM
From: patron_anejo_por_favor	Respond to of 436258

<<Very rarely does he mention the Federal budget surpluses that have converted the US into a model country from a fiscal standpoint, and made the US public debt as a percent of GDP the lowest by far compared to any other developed country>> Good point...until you consider that the social security trust fund has incurred (and will continue to incur) debt exceeding what was "eliminated" through the bond repos. Out one pocket and into the other. <<Nor does he mention the fact that the low unemployment has lifted and given hope to millions of people that had previously wallowed in welfare for generations>> Yes, of course its been rising in recent months (last month excluded), so that benefit may be spent. <<And he does not mention the drastic decrease in crime, which is approaching generation lows, and is in large part due to generation low unemployment rates>> That assertion is not at all clear, it may just as easily be due to changing demographics (ie, fewer American males in the 16-25 age range compared with 10 years ago). If unemployment continues to rise, I guess we'll get to see which factor was more important. <<If Greenspan manages to deflate it in an orderly fashion he will be a hero.>> I agree, but the odds are against it....WAY against it.