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To: Bill Harmond who wrote (7431)	6/4/2001 3:08:43 PM
From: Jorj X Mckie	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 57684

oil looking awfully toppy, I bet it sees $19/barrel before it sees new highs. stockcharts.com

To: Bill Harmond who wrote (7431)	6/4/2001 6:53:49 PM
From: craig crawford	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 57684

>> There you go again! Of course not. I think you enjoy conflict. << bill all i've been trying to get you to accept is the mere possibility that you may get your wonderful technological advances, your broadband or whatever, and still not get anywhere with your stocks. you keep pointing to all the wonderful technological revolutions that are going to take place as a reason to hold on to your stocks. the only point i have tried to make is that your companies may come up with all kinds of neato technology that makes life more productive--but that doesn't mean that stock prices or corporate profits will go up. capiche? >> Let me know when you cant get your money out of the bank or there's an OPEC oil embargo, and I'll say you're on to something << now you're being silly. i think by then it will be a little too late bill. you kind of have to anticipate these things. >> Otherwise we'll just continue realizing that the sky could fall at any minute. << heh. i'm the one who just wants conflict. yet you keep trying to...umm...i can't think of the right word. is it pigeonhole me? you want to brand me as someone who says the sky is falling. not at all. i am simply trying to paint a scenario where energy prices and other commodities rise due to shortages, which chokes off the economy and forces greenspan to pump more money into the system. this causes rising interest rates & a bout of inflation, which does damage to paper assets in the coming years. i think commodities, (and yes, even gold) will do better than tech stocks over the next 5-10 years. problems with opec or the middle east will only exacerbate the issue. does that sound irrational or inconceivable? i am somehow into black helicopter conspiracies just because i think stocks could do poorly for the next decade? bill we have never had a bubble of this magnitude end in any way other than badly. none of the bubbles of the magnitude we just witnessed were done going down after just one year, and every single one gave back all of the prior gains. i just don't quite understand why it has to be so different this time. it wasn't different with the tulips. it wasn't different with the south sea. it wasn't different in '29 or '66. it wasn't different for japan in more recent times. it will be no different for us, and the evidence is clear for all to see.