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Strategies & Market Trends : Commodities - The Coming Bull Market -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: tyc:> who wrote (79)	6/4/2001 3:49:01 PM
From: craig crawford	Respond to of 1643

>> So Jimmy Rogers is very bullish on natural resources, but not on natural resource stocks. << well i think he is only saying that the unleveraged futures are a better way to play. you don't have to worry about currencies or company specific problems such as hedging or selling forward or any other kind of snafus. if you hold the futures and the commodity moves, you are going to make money. if you happen to pick the wrong stock, maybe you won't make out as well. i don't think he is suggesting that there won't be good money to be made on natural resource stocks, especially if you do the work and pick the right ones. for instance at the very bottom of this article: APRIL 27, 2001 VOL.27 NO.16 On The Road Again After driving through 90 countries, Wall St. guru Jim Rogers says China's the place to be asiaweek.com What should investors buy right now? Globalization is coming, but that doesn't mean people will buy only today's global brands, which are the darlings of Wall Street investors like Warren Buffet. Coke, Sony and Citigroup will be around but there will be other competitors, mainly Chinese. I'm bullish on natural-resources stocks. Over the medium term, there will be shortages, which will do wonders to [stock and commodity] prices.

To: tyc:> who wrote (79)	6/4/2001 5:10:30 PM
From: Moominoid	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 1643

The problem with natural resource stocks is that mining at least is tremendously capital intensive and so needs lots of investment to generate profit growth. On top of that the output market is notoriously cyclical with big price swings unlike anything you see in manufactures or services. The long-term price trend is also down and as these are commodities there is little pricing power at all. So on the whole they are terrible investments unless you strike lucky and invest in an explorer that finds the big deposit or oil field or whatever or trade the stocks through the price cycles or find merger candidates etc.