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Strategies & Market Trends : Commodities - The Coming Bull Market -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: westpacific who wrote (87)6/4/2001 8:49:21 PM
From: craig crawford  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1643
 
Charging Ahead

June 2001, Worth magazine

A lack of capital investment suggests the recent run in energy stocks is set to continue.
worth.com

The U.S. energy sector is suffering from a lack of capacity. Low energy prices through 1998 are partly to blame. But so is the U.S.'s obsession with technology, capped by the Internet boom (and subsequent bust). Investment capital that could otherwise have funded energy infrastructure projects such as refineries, pipelines, and tankers was instead chasing big returns in the high-tech sector. "The tech bubble actually damaged the real economy," says Richard Bernstein, senior quantitative analyst at Merrill Lynch. "And the areas that were damaged the most were the energy and power sectors." Invesco's Segner agrees. "This country hasn't done any capital investment [in energy] for 15 or 20 years," he says. Technology plays another key role in bolstering the long-term prospects of the energy sector. In the information age, companies can be crippled if their networks go down — Amazon.com, for example, stands to lose millions of dollars if customers cannot access its Web site. So firms are increasingly in need of higher-quality power sources. That's why operations like server farms and Web hosting facilities are supplementing or replacing power from the traditional grid with other primary sources that ensure a consistent energy supply (an important issue in California these days). The major beneficiaries of the new energy landscape are likely to be those companies whose business is getting at and delivering oil, natural gas, and even coal.

Despite its archaic image, coal still fires 51 percent of all power plants in the U.S. Coal stocks have had a tremendous run, returning 279 percent over the past 12 months, the best showing among the 94 industry groups tracked by Dow Jones. But Bear Stearns analyst Michael Dudas points out that with continued high prices for natural gas — coal's main competitor — coal producers will be able to get higher prices from utilities for the next several years, as their contracts come up for renewal. Few producers are better positioned than Arch Coal, up 505 percent in the past year. Last year Phase II of the Clean Air Act went into effect, mandating low sulfur-dioxide emissions from power plants, and most of the coal Arch mines has a low sulfur content.

(excerpts)