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Strategies & Market Trends : Buffettology -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Moominoid who wrote (2862)6/5/2001 9:33:59 AM
From: I_C_Deadpeople  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 4691
 
I just finished the Lowenstein book and my impressions of Buffet with regard to the topic of "picking losers" are as follows. First, and foremost, his approach to picking stocks (ie undervalued )is nothing new. It just seems that no one follows this approach! Everyone follows the trend, he simply does his own thing. Second, there have been three major time periods where he sold off most of or at least a lot of his position (contrary to the belief that he holds stock for life). the first period was of course when he dissolved the partnership in 69 , the second in early 87 and the third in 98/99. It is not coincidence that these periods were also the beginnings of bear markets. His basic, simple value approach told him there was no longer value in the market so he exits (usually quitely). He seems to instintivly know when the market is going to swoon.
Of course, once it did swoon, such as 1970 - 74, he was right back in there with all his cash buying up value.

What also struck me from the book was the fact that he has had long periods where he has not bought any stock at all ( several years, usually before the stock bear markets). His patience is amazing. An everyday investor or fund manager simply cannot resist the urge to invest, to reinvest and of course to stay invested.

I am sure if one was to comb through every transaction with Berkshire there were some stocks that lost value. But over the last 30 or so years, Buffet has consistently avoided a large hit to his portfolio. Thus he has ridden all the bull waves and avoided all the bear markets. When you read the book it all sounds so simple and so - common sense. Yet, why cannot more fund managers or investors do the same?