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Strategies & Market Trends : Technical analysis for shorts & longs -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: The Ox who wrote (32608)	6/5/2001 6:22:59 AM
From: The Ox	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70665

Let me add that I'm a strong believer in cycles driving the market. From following the Oil/Nat Gas markets during the latest boom-bust-boom cycle, (3-4qtr 97 / 1qtr 99 / still in boom cycle IMO) and the latest semi bust-boom-bust cycle (3qtr 98, 1qtr 00, still in bust cycle), I think that these trends tend to run in 18 to 24 month segments. While this may be wishful thinking at the current moment for the semi's, I still think that the farther down they go, the more potential return we'll have by entering near the bottom of the trough. I started loading up on oil service stocks in Dec 98 yet the bottom wasn't made until Feb/March of 99. Not too early but still it was a tough couple of months to be on the long side. Likewise, I did too much buying in the early part of the 3rd quarter of 98 in the semi industry and had a tough couple of months before the turnaround. I have tried to learn from these past experiences. I am looking to be more disciplined going forward and this is where I will try to let the market dictate when to buy, as opposed to using my 'forward vision' as the buying trigger. I'm always interested in the different ways others do things, so if you have any suggestions or sector/stock indicators that you use to assist in your investment selections, I would appreciate any feedback you care to give. TIA Michael