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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Pitera who wrote (4002)	6/5/2001 12:29:30 PM
From: John Pitera	Respond to of 33421

NAPM Hits Record Low today From Briefing.... ------------------- The non-manufacturing NAPM index fell to a new record low of 46.6% despite a modest rise in new orders which left the sub-component below the 50% neutral mark. The short four year life of the index leaves the market little phased by the back to back sub-50% read in an index intended to measure the strength of the ex-manufacturing economy. I take it as an indicator to watch as the economy continues on a downturn now kicking the service sector as it did the manufacturing sector a half year ago before the sectoral recession began. Only 3 of the 9 sub components are above the 50% neutral mark as leaders like new orders, employment, export and import orders stand below. The price index held steady at 59.5% as deliveries are running on time -- hardly the measures to find comfort in.

To: John Pitera who wrote (4002)	6/5/2001 12:38:49 PM
From: MulhollandDrive	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

"The productivity of U.S. workers logged its sharpest fall in eight years during the first three months of the year while signs of wage pressure emerged with the largest gain in labor costs in more than a decade, the government said on Tuesday." John, This may be somewhat mis-leading though. I was just reading yesterday that although wage pressure is rising, hours worked have declined substantially in the past 6 months, thus the productivity decline. But since the demand side of the equation does not seem to be supporting the unsustainable levels of productivity of previous years, it would seem we're in for more consolidation, mergers, and downsizing.

To: John Pitera who wrote (4002)	6/5/2001 2:59:19 PM
From: Hawkmoon	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 33421

Yep... Productivity will continue to get hit until either of two situations occur... manufacturers cave in to the reality that economic growth will remain stagnant and thus require more lay-offs (thus, bringing down the number of worker hours being divided into productive output), or.... .... economic growth and manufacturing orders increase markedly, thus permitting those currently underutilized workers to produce goods at a rate commensurate with their abilities. Personally, I believe that productivity has declined because corporations are loath to fire trained workers, despite the fact that manufacturing orders are showing little or no growth (and many cases, a significant decline). Hawk