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Strategies & Market Trends : Sharck Soup -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stockman_scott who wrote (26067)	6/5/2001 1:02:47 PM
From: cthd	Respond to of 37746

Stockman Scott- While I agree with the numbers presented by the article, I do have reservations about today's rally. Downside risk still outweigh upside gains according to usual bearish indicators: 1. VIX is at 22 (a very bearish indicator) 2. Insider selling has increased (typically signals ST market tops 3-6 mo) 3. GDP continues to decline and risk towards recession 4. We are very much due for a major recession and/or war (historically long economic prosperity have always been met by war or recessions...) 5. Consumer spending is showing signs of slowing down and is the only thing that is keeping this economy together (today's decline in NAPM non-manufacturing to 46 is not exactly a BUY signal for me) 6. BTB (book to bill) ratio is laughably low and expectations of a sharp rebound in BTB have been revised downward by economists, companies, and most analysts in the industry. 7. Telecom's and networkers continue to show weakness and have indicated that the weakness would continue for the forseeable future (ie CSCO....LU reaffirmed greatly lowered revenues did surprise me today though). 8. TODAY: APRIL FACTORY ORDERS FALL 3% instead of 2.5%, ARPIL INVENTORIES ACTUALLY INCREASED by 0.1%! 9. ITS EARNINGS WARNINGS SEASON FOR STOCKS SAKE!!!!!! :) Only bullish indicator that I have seen is that the FED is printing money like its confetti by doing open market operations all year long (rate cuts have no real immediate effect especailly since the economic decline is a demand issue and not a liquidity issue...ie telecom build out wont continue because supply has outstriped demand and making loans more readily available does not necessarily increase demand to a great degree). I am short the market. I do thank you for your article and welcome any other thoughts and our constructive criticisms to my above assumptions. CTHD