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Strategies & Market Trends : John Pitera's Market Laboratory -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Hawkmoon who wrote (4014)	6/6/2001 1:08:24 AM
From: Raymond Duray	Respond to of 33421

Hi Hawkmoon, Re: Btw, real-estate in the DC metropolitan area is expected to climb 20-30% per year for the forseeable future. Well, with "visibility" for the tech and manufacturing sectors at about white out conditions, I'd say the foreseeable future is a lot shorter than many may suspect. I recall the 80-1 recession when prices in Oregon and California, which had been going up about 25% a year in the late 70's all of a sudden stopped appreciating and the suddenly plunged. Of course, the interest rate picture is not comparable today, but I don't see how the chaos in the private sector in the Beltropolis metro area is going to be conducive to a lot of real estate price appreciation. More likely, foreclosure sales will have a chilling impact on local real estate values and the rate of re-sales, etc. You people got it easy back in the D.C. In San Francisco last year, at the height of the bubble, a studio would rent for $1,500 and a one bedroom for $2,500, even in very undesirable neighborhoods. I hear from my property manager friend down there that things have cooled off a bit. To put it into perspective, that same studio would have rented for $550 in 1997. Regarding Japan's currency and debt woes.... thanks for the clarification on your thoughts there. Yes, the situation there seems to be a classic liquidity trap. I really have to wonder if the LDP has the spine to screw the postal savers with an overnight haircut. They would be committing seppuku as a party. As timid as the bureaucracies there have been to cut their losses, especially in the banking sector, I'm not sure I see them as bold enough to alienate every saver in the country. But I could be wrong. <w> Ray