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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Boplicity who wrote (78044)	6/5/2001 10:47:23 PM
From: Robert New	Respond to of 99985

A solid bottom in the storage sector would require many of those gaps to get filled. Many have ragged bases and I am just trading them until they fill. Once they get filled I will be more interested in building longer term positions.

To: Boplicity who wrote (78044)	6/6/2001 9:21:25 AM
From: t2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

We get a surprise in "warnings season"..Citrix better than expected earnings when they report. My observation is that while in past years, we would get mostly warnings, this time we should get a mix of: 1. confirming guidance 2. above expectation announcement 3. warnings. The pre-announcement game has changed. It is the possibility of 1. and 2. that will catch people off guard, imho. In "normal" times, positive preannouncements were not that common but that may no longer be the case anymore. Also note that the bar has been set very low by a lot of companies. That is what may catch traders off guard...the ones that have successfully shorted stocks leading to preannouncement period, then covered and went long into earnings. That pattern may not be as profitable as in the past. That also makes the case for a rally in this period being more likely as the traders that use history as the key guide----get caught on the wrong side of the trade (ie. being short)---and end up being forced to cover sooner. That is why I am sticking to my big rally prediction going into mid to late June for about Nasdaq 2400-2500. Of course I have been ridiculed for the high short term target.<g> I don't have a game plan yet for the last week of June and all of July...it all depends upon how things unfold in the meantime. BTW--just noticed Tod Harrison of realmoney.com seems now to be having second thoughts about his bearish scenarios. He is looking at the possibility of Naz2500 with a low VIX like last summer. Here is the link. (8:54 am entry)http://www.thestreet.com/p/td/HarrisonDiary/HarrisonDiary_page_1.html