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To: Mark Fowler who wrote (126070)	6/6/2001 1:28:23 AM
From: craig crawford	Respond to of 164687

>> That all depends the economy in view. << like i said before, can you show me an economy that didn't suffer a prolonged bust following a mania of the magnitude we just experienced? show me a market that had the kind of excess ours had and then plunged almost 70% and then came right back after only a year. on second thought don't bother. you can't find a market that was as excessive as ours was, so you won't be able to compare. >> I don't see a depression << does anyone ever see one ahead of time? no one sees it before it comes. go back and look at newspaper headlines from past bear markets/depressions. they are all full of optimism about how the economy was going to come back "later in the year", or "early next year". like victor said it started out with the economy picking up in the second half of this year, and now it's being pushed out to early next year. how do you know that towards the end of this year it won't get pushed out once again to late next year? >> or a war coming << how do you know a war isn't coming? did you predict the war with iraq ten years ago? >> and so far it looks like the economy is headed for slow growth with low inflation << and what evidence do you have of this? do you know what the pathetic excuse greenspam used to say we weren't going to have inflation? he said businesses can't pass on costs to the customer. oh great. so we're not going to have inflation, we're just going to spiral into deflation with ever sinking prices and no corporate profits. oh joy. >> I still think we are in a deflationary period and companies with unmanageable high debt will be hit hardest. << yes, the hardest. but with the consumer already overloaded with debt and the only solution being the consumer taking on more debt, don't you think it could hurt all companies if the consumer can't take on more debt? we've already gotten the bounce from refi's in the housing sector and that's over with. do you actually think we will never have a recession again, when we've always had them before? you think we somehow magically eliminated the business cycle? the only thing greenspam can do is prolong things and draw them out, which will only make them worse.