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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Charles Tutt who wrote (47622)	6/6/2001 2:35:46 PM
From: John Trader	Respond to of 70976

Charles, I am very tuned into the contrarian philosophy these days. It is tricky getting it right though. For example, the market has gone up about 12% per year over the last 50 years, and analysts tend to have a bullish bias. One would have to convert the analyst recommendations in some way in order to make use of them. One way to deal with the analysts is to just zero in on solid companies such as AMAT, and buy when analysts seem to be near the end of their downgrade cycles, and sell when they seem to be near the end of their upgrade cycles. However, the method of using charts and buying when orders hit bottom has been a great method for AMAT, looking back at least. Gottfried has done a great job at looking into this. John