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To: Victor Lazlo who wrote (126081)	6/6/2001 3:47:48 PM
From: craig crawford	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 164687

hey vic, open mouth, insert foot. World Oil Markets eia.doe.gov Oil consumption in 2000 rose by slightly less than 1 million barrels per day, with nonindustrialized nations accounting for all the increase. Oil demand in the developing economies of the Pacific Rim and China was responsible for about 50 percent of the increase In Japan and the developing Asian countries (excluding China, where oil use continued to grow even while the rest of Asia was mired in recession), Developing Asia The largest increase in oil demand is projected for the developing countries of Asia, where consumption is expected to increase by 3.9 percent per year between 1999 and 2020 (Figure 30). This region alone is expected to account for 37 percent of the increase in world oil demand in the forecast period, the highest regional growth in the world. Strong expected economic growth in developing Asia fuels the demand for additional oil consumption, both in terms of increasing demand for transportation sector energy use and for other industrial, electricity sector, and building uses. In China, the largest oil consumer in developing Asia, oil demand is projected to increase by 6.1 million barrels per day from 1999 to 2020. Much of the increment is expected in the transportation sector, where the need to transport people and goods will be increasingly important for economic growth. More than two-thirds of the increase in China’s oil use is expected in the transportation sector, and the transportation share of the country’s oil use is expected to increase from about one-third in 1999 to 55 percent in 2020. While much of the motor vehicle population in China is owned by institutions (primarily the government), increasing wealth is expected to spur demand for personal motor vehicles that can be used for private travel. Already, there are signs that China’s “newly rich” and small businesses that have succeeded as a result of increasing economic liberalization are starting to obtain private vehicles. The most dramatic example is the number of minivans being used by burgeoning taxi companies [3]. Moreover, China’s trucking industry has increasingly been deregulated over the past decade, which should also encourage the growth of the transportation sector. Nontransportation oil demand in China is projected to increase by an average of 2.4 percent per year—a faster growth rate than that for total oil demand in most industrialized countries. The industrial sector is expected to account for more than 40 percent of China’s oil consumption. In addition, China is one of the world’s largest consumers of oil for chemical uses, and its chemical industry consumed about 13 percent of the petroleum used in China in 1997. Increases are also expected in other end-use sectors, including the electricity sector as China attempts to diversify away from its heavy reliance on coal From 1970 to 1999, oil consumption in South Korea grew at an average rate that was among the highest in the world. Despite a decline of 419 thousand barrels per day in 1998 and a modest increase of 67 thousand barrels per day in 1999, petroleum consumption grew at an average annual rate of 8.4 percent from 1970 to 1999, much of it attributed to substantial increases in personal motorization during the period. The projected growth rate in energy use slows markedly over the projection period as the transportation sector reaches saturation levels. Still, South Korea is expected to add 1.2 million barrels per day to world oil demand in the forecast period, only slightly less than Western Europe. India’s oil demand is projected to rise from 1.9 million barrels per day in 1999 to 5.8 million barrels per day in 2020. At 5.4 percent per year, the projected growth rate for oil use in India is the highest among the countries and regions in the forecast. The transportation sector currently makes up half of the oil market in India, and 86 percent of the projected increase is expected to be used for transport. Although thus far the poor state of India’s transportation infrastructure has constrained fast-paced growth in automobile ownership, rapid expansion of private motorization and of the corresponding demand for transportation fuels is expected to follow as the infrastructure improves. At present, automobile ownership in India is largely viewed as a symbol of emerging wealth.