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Strategies & Market Trends : Sharck Soup -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Frederick Langford who wrote (26171)	6/6/2001 10:35:31 AM
From: Dave Gore	Respond to of 37746

Fred, worth noting especially since many believe that such a low VIX level is negative. What a low VIX means is low volatility and lower fear in the Market. It's hard for me to think this is THAT great an indicator of a market downturn, but if others believe that it is, we must take note of it. I am keeping an eye out, but the Market is much safer, and especially tech prospects, than they have been, IMHO, but there is still risk over the next quarter or so for sure.

To: Frederick Langford who wrote (26171)	6/6/2001 11:35:43 AM
From: Dave Gore	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 37746

Fred, I just took a quick look at the COMPX from late Jan. to mid-Feb and kind of overlayed the VIX. The Market actually did alright when the VIX was low. But as it started to climbed from about 24 to 42 from mid-Feb. to early April, the Market really tanked hard. I am not sure what conclusions you could draw without doing much more analysis, but perhaps if the VIX (i.e. volatility) starts climbing again, we do need to watch out. As long as it stays under 25, there may not be too much cause for concern? Just a quick observation - I still am not sure how much credence I put in the VIX. It WAS true that when it climbed over 35 several months we seemed to rally temporarily, but I am still not sure that a low VIX doesn't just mean that people are starting to hold positions longer term and stock prices are therefore stabilizing a bit more. Thoughts?