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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dave Gore who wrote (52066)	6/6/2001 2:12:12 PM
From: Rande Is	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 57584

Dave, good to hear from you. Hope you are well. If you would expand your overlay to show the last 2 years, you might better see what I am seeing. How the market acts when the VIX is high aside. . . . when it hits these extreme low points, it seems that we are more likely to see a top shortly thereafter. . . and worse, it may imply that we are a matter of weeks away from an extreme drop. SIDEBAR: [Now that is if you believe that history repeats and there are patterns that help us to indicate market direction. As soon as one factors in market manipulation it sort of throws many of the traditional indicators out the window. But I guess that is one thing that we individuals must constantly be on the look for. . . and that is non-traditional indicators.] I believe that technicals have been used to club us over the head for quite a while. So by looking at less traditional views, using more subjective indicators and drawing less obvious parallels, I believe we are beginning to unearth some hidden truths about this new ultra volatile market. Although our indicators are about as volatile as the markets. So consider my two examples of mid-Aug to mid-Sept, where the VIX languished in the dumps [under 22]. . . .which was followed soon afterward by those dramatic declines on the Naz. . . . or the March 3rd, 2000 low in the VIX which was followed a few days later by the "top of the tech bubble". . . and several weeks later by one of the sharpest declines in history. In my opinion, this cursory glance may indicate that when the VIX breaks below 22 major trouble is looming ahead. Perhaps the trouble is just too much bullishness. . . .which is never a good thing. Especially these days. I guess I just don't believe that Wall Street is done cooking this stew. But rather I think that the powers that be [heavy hitting insiders] will use those long confident positions indicated by such a low VIX. . . to beat small LT investors and mutual funds over the head, like they have so many times before. Furthermore, I can't imagine them suddenly ignoring such an obvious "opportunity" to cash in once again on the "bag holders". And that is more the basis from which I draw my conclusion, RE: the VIX. . . .subjective as it may be. But keep in mind that my original post that started this discussion contained plenty other factors than just the VIX fix. And it takes much more than one indicator for me to go way out on a limb like this. I hope that helps. I am very interested in what you uncover in your studies. Thanks much, Rande Is