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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (78079)	6/6/2001 12:17:18 PM
From: HairBall	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Uncle Frank: Charts are graphic representations of FACT. To the above I agree completely, as long as your data's good...<g> However, my statement is correct as well. One fact does not always make another incorrect. Those who try to interpret charts to predict the future are often influenced by crowd sentiment, psychology, and manipulation, but their biggest problem may be in assuming it is possible to divine the future with any degree of accuracy. LOL…to that statement I'll just say, Technical Analysis is not easy and is not for everyone. The level of success depends on how accomplished at using TA you can become. Many that try never get any good at it at all and they always seem to be the worst critics, the non-believers. I find statements like the one above is a telling sign of someone that is not very accomplished at using TA or never tried very hard if at all to become accomplished. Just curious, were you being disingenuous last September when you asked me to proffer my analysis of NTAP on the NTAP thread back when many on that thread thought it was in clear air to stay? By the way, looking at the charts (the facts...<g>) anyone that read my analysis would have been well served to have followed it even though I was “assuming it is possible to divine the future with any degree of accuracy” using technical analysis...<g> EDIT: I have never said Technical Analysis is an absolute, nothing is...but it can provide a structure which allows trading and investing with higher probabilities while providing entry and exit strategies. And TA should not be used in a vacuum as some suggest. Fundamentals and sentiment indicators should be reviewed regularly... Regards, LG

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (78079)	6/6/2001 1:08:51 PM
From: t2	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Speaking of sentiment. Just noticed that Intel is going up even while the HWP news has been net negative. That sends a strong signal to the traders! That just shows how strong this market is...given this attempt to push it down earlier today. I would actually be even more bullish if we see a strong close today...the selloff would just be consider a great test on the Naz. My conclusion is that there are just too many buyers (same conclusions that I had for the past week or so). So many negative comments from analysts on Intel but most still say buy. I can see the reasoning for this is obvious. I am one who believes that Microsoft product cycles do affect INTEL/AMD and the boxmakers. Slight dips prior to launches. HWP stated that the market globally was bad in May---including Asia. However, Office XP was released at the end of May. I will note that from past upgrades surrounding Windows (launch in October 2001) tended to indicate more of a pop in sales after the launch. It will make Pentium 4 more important at that time. For now, it is just a matter of getting production efficiences for Intel and the boxmakers (sounds like a rock band name<g>). Looks like a good setup for a strong year end, imho. I am also very positive on HWP even with its cautious because its sales levels are still high even though the PE has suffered. That is why I am super bullish on MSFT, INTEL, and boxmakers. Not as confident on CPQ and GTW yet but HWP and DELL seem OK. MSFT positive near and longer term while the rest of the group is a good 2nd half of the year play. That means the buying should be happening near term anyways. This sector is a big part of the Nasdaq and could easily dictate market direction....lead by Microsoft.

To: Uncle Frank who wrote (78079)	6/6/2001 9:53:35 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

>>>>>assuming it is possible to divine the future with any degree of accuracy in the first place.>>> uncle frank, it's true that nobody has an inside track with the big giant head, but some think they do and they will flame anybody that doesn't believe they do, the market is an emotional creature, a dysfunctional person, a manic-depressive, going from elation to depression. people who use t/a try to use different indicators and methods to define the when we are in a period of elation and use moving averages, bollinger bands, sentiment indicators, etc. , patterns to define a pullback in that trend to go long, and they do the same when they think the trend has topped and turned to depression, to sell the market or go short. If you were a dyed in the wool fundamentalist, using historic benchmarks you would have been in treasury bonds and cash since 1996. stocks are pretty much like movie trends, hemline trends, or wallpaper trends -g- what's hot today, may be NOT tomorrow -g- So do you think they'll have the krispy kreme vs dunkin donuts face off on the Today show again in a year or two from now -gg- tech stocks are way more emotional than your average jelly filled, that's why your pure fundamentalist buffet doesn't buy em. and i think the only investment he would make with kkd, is a dozen to go