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Strategies & Market Trends : DAYTRADING/SWINGTRADING STOCKS with INTRADAY INVESTMENTS -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (212)	6/6/2001 3:09:09 PM
From: -	Respond to of 565

Yeah, we've been saying the SUNW etc. (the server/workstation part of the hardware sector) is in trouble. Demand just isn't bouncing back yet, and they're probably looking at another bad quarter or two. HWP is not getting beat-up too badly today though, as a lot of the bad news is already priced in. Wouldn't want to be long that thing, though. The media did a good job of mesmerizing everyone with Carly, and she is probably the perfect person for the job. But the fact remains, they have a whale of a job on their hands to turn that company/culture around into a lean, mean fighting machine (a.k.a. a "SUNW light"). They will basically tell you that if you listen closely (e.g., latest Business Week articles). But it's such a great company/tech institution, I'm sure they'll eventually get there! This is a pattern in many of the great technology companies... e.g. Compaq, Apple, Dell, Msft, etc... huge long-term up/down cycles. A few never come back... e.g. DEC, XRX. A friend of mine retired from IBM in 1990, took his retirement $ and has done very well playing these things... he has one trade, calls it the "tech wreck" trade... buys in 10-50,000 share blocks when they're really hammered and holds 2-5 years. He's made a fortune - 10x what he made his entire 40-year working career! God bless America... -Steve

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (212)	6/6/2001 3:24:45 PM
From: -	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 565

P.S., Short HWP I agree, based on the news this issue should see another leg down tomorrow. Based upon the current technical & fundamental picture, we just shorted HWP at 28.70 with an initial stop of 29.30. We are looking to bring the stop to breakeven, then hold it 1-3 days as a swing-trade. There is a huge gap to fill just below where we're trading now... should take it to the $27 area (we'll trail down to lock in profits in case it doesn't get there) where we'd take profits on any remaining position. We may see a retest of the $25 area, will try to trail a stop to there. Great risk-reward for a swing-trade! If it goes UP, we'll simply stop ourselves out for a scratch. We may decide to exit before the close tomorrow, depending upon how the market and the stock acts... we don't do that many swing trades that last longer than 24 hours in this kind of market environment. -Steve

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (212)	6/6/2001 9:33:40 PM
From: -	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 565

{re:HWP} This (summarized in newsclip below) is the kind of fresh fundamental news from a company's management that will test the resolve of institutional investors... if the big buyers come in tomorrow, then it's already priced-in and HWP's probably close to it's ultimate bottom for this correction. If not, then the street sees this as (probably a small dose of) truly fresh news and it'll go lower. My thinking on this one is that the company-specific problems that caused them to bring Carly in to transform the company's operations and culture are still there and haven't really been fixed yet. Exacerbated by the global slowdown and IT spending cuts, of course. Plus, the idea that tech earnings will quickly bounce back this fall is probably wrong. I think the street knows that all too well, which biases me slightly to the sell side on HWP. But in the market, you just never know until it happens - the best to hope for is to gain a slight advantage through reading the reaction to changes in the fundamentals (tea leaves). Over time, that's another edge. We've learned that the only thing you can really believe is price and volume because that's where the footprints are left. Of course, for the big players on Wall Street the rules are different, because they truly have access to inside information - either directly, or indirectly through their so-called "research". If you don't believe that, best to pick another occupation ;) -Steve ==== HP says tech slowdown spreads By Mike Tarsala & Chris Kraeuter, CBS.MarketWatch.com Last Update: 4:17 PM ET June 6, 2001 PALO ALTO, Calif. (CBS.MW) -- Hewlett-Packard shares sunk nearly 5 percent Wednesday after the company blamed a U.S spending slowdown that's spreading to Europe for a possible third-quarter revenue miss. "May was softer than expected and we are now addressing what is clearly becoming a global slowdown," said Carly Fiorina, Hewlett-Packard's chief executive, from an analyst meeting at the company's Palo Alto, Calif. headquarters. HP (HWP: news, msgs, alerts) shares dropped $1.34 to close at $28.71 on volume of 9.3 million shares on the New York Stock Exchange. The company said technology spending continues to slow in all regions, and the company must cut more expenses if it is to match its pro forma earnings target of 23 cents, a share, roughly $437 million, for the third quarter. HP said it is "now more cautious" about its previous expectation that revenue would fall 5 percent or be flat compared with the previous quarter's sales of $11.6 billion. At a 5 percent decline, sales would total $11.02 billion. Sales were $11.8 billion in the year-ago quarter. ===