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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: t2 who wrote (78099)	6/6/2001 6:50:50 PM
From: The Freep	Respond to of 99985

<<Freep, This story (http://dailynews.yahoo.com/h/nm/20010606/tc/tech_circuitcity...) basically confirms what I noted about PC upgrade cycle.>> Hmmm. Circuit City says XP will boost demand but IDC is quoted as saying "``We don't see Windows XP driving demand enough to cause a recovery in the market,'' " Who's right? I don't know. On the negative side, I also remember an article posted here about corporations cutting spending, particularly in terms of desktops. That said, there will always be upgrade cycles. But again, NV, this goes back to the disagreements we keep having. The question to me really is. . . even if growth resumes this year, if it's coming from such a low trough, where's the upside capped in the near term? I honestly don't know, but I'm not as optimistic as you are. And you don't even acknowledge the downside risks. What if Intel lowers next quarter's numbers? Or says that the recovery is still one more quarter away? Or some combination thereof? (Yeah, I know what's gonna happen. They don't say that. They say they're upping capex by .2 billion. The market flies to 2500 in a day ;-)) I realize the market is forward looking and all that, but I guess where I differ from you is that you're looking forward but not acknowledging how much fundamentals have slipped in the present. To me, you're pricing in a rosy near-term future as if today's stock prices don't currently reflect that hope for a quick rebound. It is highly possible you'll be right. The Fed would like you to be right. But the math to me doesn't 100% back it up, so I remain cautious :-) the freep