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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: RR who wrote (37558)	6/6/2001 6:26:22 PM
From: Sully-	Respond to of 65232

Agree RR. Have a plan. Execute the plan. Adjust as needed. Sort of like the business mantra of the 7 P's to achieve organizational goals. Proper prior planning prevents pisspoor performance. Ö¿Ö

To: RR who wrote (37558)	6/6/2001 9:05:33 PM
From: Sully-	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 65232

From: eichler Wednesday, Jun 6, 2001 8:24 PM <edited> ............ Getting back to the market itself, in particular the $compx chart..I would like to make a couple of observations at this point. On 5/21-23, the comp printed an Evening Star candlestick pattern, a bearish development. 5/25, 29, 30 saw a decline on rising volume (an indication the down move is for real) and then 5/31-6/4 saw a bounce on decreasing volume (a clue there is NO conviction behind the move). 6/5 was a strong volume day, which often denotes a top. Observe how the strong volume days of 4/11, 4/18, 5/2, 5/22 accurately called the tops in the entire rally from 4/4 to present. It might also be too early to say, but a case can be made for a head and shoulders pattern with 4/19-5/15 the left shoulder, 5/16-5/30 the head, and 5/31 to present the early formation of the right shoulder. If this pattern is true, lower prices are ahead. To be fair, and on the positive side, stochastics on the daily did cross up 6/5 and technically, this has not been negated (yet). However, the cross back up was not from the oversold zone, so the signal is suspect. Another consideration is a trendline using the low points of 4/4 and 5/16 broke to the downside 5/30 and is currently trading below, with 6/5 and 6/6 failed attempts to re-enter above the line (again in fairness it could be argued the trend-line is invalid due to only 2 touches). Note that each attempt so far to contain the downside potential of price with the lower boundary of an uptrend line has resulted in downward break after downward break, readjusting the lower trendline at a lesser and lesser angle. I believe this is portending a reversal of trend from up to down (on an intermediate timeframe). In conclusion, while I am not stupid enough to say that the Naz is definitely going down the crapper, I am definitely not foolish enough to ignore what very much appears to me as negative developments in the current rally. Also of note is that my much beloved Penny Stocks have not been behaving very well as of 5/30. When the parallel occurrance back in Jan-Feb took place, the Naz dumped for two solid months. Also, the metals have reawakened recently and their rise I do not consider bullish for stocks. I could go on and on, but honestly I have already bored and tired myself out. I wanted to explain why I am currently bearish regarding the market, and why. It is my interpretation of TA and not a personal bias nor the parroting of Joe Analyst's comments. Each day, another piece of the puzzle is given and of course modifies or fills out the picture being created. This requires the flexibilty to change one's opinion given the right circumstances, at present I see nothing to make me want to go long anything tech. I believe the following weeks will bear out (or refute) the wisdom (or foolishness) of this opinion. Best Regards and Best Of Luck, Eichler P.S. I am perfectly willing to let the market show me I am wrong. But, I want to see it before I believe it! Also, I am sorry for all the mis-spellings...I am just too tired and lazy right now to go back and fix 'em... Ö¿Ö