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To: Mark Adams who wrote (107140)6/7/2001 9:28:51 AM
From: Ilaine  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 436258
 
The paper at the second link, while not as professional or polished as the paper at the first link, I thought was better. It made a clearer analysis about the effects of ignoring the limitations of NIPA accounting, which don't take into account the real world consequences of some economic choices, i.e., it doesn't take into account capital gains when stocks are sold, it assumes that once they are sold the money received is consumed. That means that the capital gains of trillions of dollars worth of stocks held in pension plans and IRA accounts are completely off the NIPA books. I'd seen that mentioned before, but what really brings it home is the data from the first paper that people in the bottom 80% of income brackets are saving more than ever before, as savings is traditionally defined, and it's only the accounting for capital gains for people in the top 20% that makes it appear that Americans are not saving.

Nevertheless, there has been an increase in personal debt, there has been an increase in medical expenses, reliance on capital gains is problematic in view of the decline in the stock market, and also the decline in future earnings which presages a further decline in the stock market - maybe. Further, much of the gains in US equities over the recent past are due to foreign investment, which will certainly be withdrawn if conditions elsewhere become more favorable. I don't think the bearish case is refuted, it's just more information to be weighed.

The really good research on consumer finance is only done triennially, and this is the year - the data collection is going on at this moment, but it won't be analyzed until next year - maybe some preliminary stuff later in the year.