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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Seeker of Truth who wrote (43288)	6/7/2001 3:22:13 AM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

I think a major issue to contend with is our expectation. Few people were expecting that an unprecedented rise in the market could be followed by an unprecedented fall. Malcolm menions that "the great wireless explosion looks to be quite slower than previously expected." Not to pick on Malcolm or anyone who agrees with him, but let's articulate what those expectations were and what they were based on before we determine that our expectations should be altered. And let's do that exercise with regard to all of our expectations. --Mike Buckley

To: Seeker of Truth who wrote (43288)	6/7/2001 2:24:55 PM
From: Bruce Brown	Respond to of 54805

I suggest we refine the notion of a gorilla. How about saying a gorilla has no decreases in earnings, over a significant period? I have to disagree. Why? Because it is pretty hard to avoid the cyclicality of technology and the reasons why it is cyclical in terms of the business cycle. I always call it growth coming 'in waves'. With each expansion and contraction, there will be corrective sell-offs. The mass of the recent expansion and following corrective phase were much more severe in nature than experienced before at times in the 90's and 80's due to the strength of the expansion and the valuations/expectations that were set so high for that level of expansion to continue. The dominant companies today will all experience waves of growth going forward hinged around the business cycle. Depending on the business cycle and IT demand for the technology during the business cycle, earnings growth during the contraction points may fall into your category of 'significant period' even though the company is a gorilla. BB