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Strategies & Market Trends : Sharck Soup -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: besttrader who wrote (26440)	6/7/2001 10:31:55 AM
From: StormRider	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 37746

Intel (INTC) 30.60 +0.78: Do tell Intel, how is the second quarter shaping up? That question will be answered after the close when Intel holds its first ever mid-quarter update. The current consensus sales and EPS estimates are $6.29 bln and $0.11 respectively. Suffice it to say, there has been plenty of speculation of late as to what investors might hear from the world's leading semiconductor company. Here are some of the more notable excerpts heard recently from some Wall Street firms: Goldman Sachs: doesn't see how the news can be good; says that after a brief respite in late-March/early-April, PC data points have been almost universally negative; believes Intel will not break prior guidance range but could see cut off the top half of the guidance range. CSFB: expects INTC to shift its guidance to either the lower end of its range or a 5-10% decline. While it does not expect Intel to issue outright warning, believes INTC may need to stock the channel to meet Q2 guidance. Firm maintaining estimates, but expects to take them down after the call. Salomon Smith Barney: maintaining its estimates at $6.35 bln revenues and $0.13 EPS for the June qtr; also believes company will maintain $7.5 bln capex guidance - actually believes they are trending above this pace now and will have to work down to the $7.5 bln figure Merrill Lynch: keeping Q2 revenue estimate at $5.97 bln and EPS estimate at $0.10; says if Intel hits its revenue guidance, investors should take a hard look at inventory levels in Taiwan, and on Intel's own balance sheet, before buying the stock on a PC recovery story Here are some of the more notable excerpts from the actual guidance Intel provided after its Q1 earnings report: revenue to be in the $6.2 bln-$6.8 bln range; gross margin to be 49%, plus or minus a couple of points; and capital spending for 2001 to be roughly $7.5 bln. Frankly, Briefing.com would be surprised if Intel did warn. You see, the company has had to revise its estimates for three consecutive quarters, and in past calls you could hear the CFO's frustration with that reality. Accordingly, we would point to the wide revenue range as a means of Intel giving itself some cushion that, hopefully, will prevent it from issuing another warning. Even if Intel were to guide estimates modestly lower, we doubt the impact on the tech sector would last more than a day or two as a number of recent warnings from other semiconductor companies has the market well aware of that possibility. What would spook the market, though, is if Intel lowers numbers and also says-- along the lines of Hewlett-Packard (HWP)-- that it is seeing a broadening of the economic slowdown. After the close, be sure to check Briefing.com's Short Stories page for word on what Intel is saying about Q2 as it is saying it.-- Patrick J. O'Hare, Briefing.