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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Earlie who wrote (107219)	6/7/2001 12:15:24 PM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 436258

I guess the main thing I wanted to open for discussion is, if my premise is right, AG will do whatever is within his power to stabilize consumer spending. He has rationalized targeting asset prices because they impact effective money supply. I don't think he views the bulge in M3 with alarm because he sums that together with the asset deflation underway, so they net about zero. But at some point, even his best efforts to prop up asset prices and therefore consumer spending will fail as the capital equipment fallout feeds through the system (ie layoffs, salary cuts), and eventually the asset prop itself will fail, as confidence in his abilities wanes. When that begins to show up in consumer spending, the real recession is on. So - when will that be? What are we looking for? Total retail sales receipts? Unemployment claims surges? BC