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Strategies & Market Trends : VOLTAIRE'S PORCH-MODERATED -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: stockman_scott who wrote (37593)	6/8/2001 9:45:27 AM
From: Jim Willie CB	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 65232

never in US economic history has unemploymt appls been over 400k weekly for a several week stretch WITHOUT a recession hitting in force soon afterwards dont believe the 2ndHalf Recovery mantra nonsense wishful thinking bulldoodoo all indications point to recession deepening by late summer and early autumn it will be deep it will last long it will hurt all it will crush stocks again the world economy has ALREADY entered a recession with several secondary nations having begun the backsliding process already Business Week reported this in last week's issue as the world slides backwards, the US will slide back with it we are not strong enough to pull it out JUST YET not for another several months Fed stimulus measures sound huge, momentous, unprecedented, signficant but they are not enough to deal with a decade of built up overcapacity each nation's decline will affect its neighbors and trading partners each will send the others down slightly more it will feed upon itself in ultra slow motion the effect of spending has already been recorded by corporations it will next have a surprisingly large impact on consumers layoffs are accelerating, not ending I have been saying this since March if the 2ndHalf Recovery scenario were correct, we would be seeing improvements by now in the job figures US corporations vote on the 2ndHalf Recovery with pink slips they are issuing them in record numbers while they talk of 2ndHalf Recovery and visibility of earnings, they contradict with layoff decisions of 100's of thousands of workers if they expected a recovery, then why wouldn't they preserve their valuable workers for that recovery? I guess they expect to have excessive demand by November NOT V-shaped recovery is the stuff of PR depts in brokerage houses they wanted your money they got your money now fight to get it back or simply wave goodbye as you feed the rich cats RECESSION EVIDENT AND HARSH BY SEPTEMBER MASSIVE STOCK DECLINES BY LATE SUMMER like cold water in the face of investors thrown by the institutions and houses they were wrong last September they were wrong this April next to slide backwards is real estate it has held firm for months, due mostly to lower interest rates as the summer passes, so will demand I expect it to experience a weird uncertain time this autumn esp in winter when it goes to sleep anyway / jw