Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : Prophecy -- HYPE or HOPE? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: abuelita who wrote (259)	6/8/2001 10:41:50 PM
From: SOROS	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 5569

jpost.com

To: abuelita who wrote (259)	6/9/2001 7:12:28 PM
From: SOROS	Respond to of 5569

Ramblings posted on another thread: I haven't seen anyone logically explain why the markets will not go back to the historical averages in terms of PE ever again. If we must see a bottom before an extended bull market again of say, 1-3 years, why would that bottom not AT LEAST be to a historical PE ratio? The S & P is like somewhere near 25-26 I believe, while the historical figure is like 17-18. Is this not true? For people to say April 3 was the low, don't they have to believe we are rewriting history? Someone tell me why the markets (all of them) can't go back to historical averages they have ALWAYS done before? Is Greenspan a God unlike the world has ever seen? Can he undo all of history? If you are betting on Greenspan to negotiate a quick turnaround with no major recession, then you ARE betting against history for the first time. Are people so greedy that they don't care what the PE is -- they will NEVER accept returns (at least by choice) of 4-7% again? With earnings slowing down and recession traveling the globe, who are the "fools" paying a 300+ PE for CIEN right now? That is one of dozens of examples. Can a person be anything but insane to pay over a 100 PE for a DONUT SELLER (KKD)??? It's a brave new world, and perhaps there is so much money flowing into retirement accounts that they will be able to simply keep it all afloat until a recession danger passes, but then you have to believe that the history of the markets is being rewritten right now, and there will be no history to point to from here on out. I'd love to hear a RATIONAL explanation. Analysts are selling stocks. That is their job. I remain, SOROS I hear people all the time say, "I won't take 4-7% on my money!" Guess, what? If the recession in many parts of the world finally, officially, actually, undeniably, hits the USA, they will watch their portfolios go down the drain. That 4% will look pretty good compared to losing the past 5 years years of totally unrealistic, inflated, bloated growth. Check out the insider data on most companies. It's a crime to see people like Case at AOL exercising millions of options at pennies and selling those same shares to the masses hoping they can make them rich too. No one deserves these kind of salaries and options. Sports figures and actors are paid as gods. Only in the past 20 years has this excess gone on practically unabated -- and it gets more pronounced each year. Greed got us here, and greed will kill the USA. I believe in capitalism as much as the next person, but the excesses and greed are crazy. Even if there is no catalyst event (ie. war in Mideast, which I believe will happen), the USA and its condoning of the past Administration's acts will pay for its attitude. Other Administrations were also corrupt, but they at least did not have the backing out front of the American people -- as Clinton did. People knew things happened, but they did not express pride and bragging about it or complete apathy as long as their pocketbook was not hurting. Watch Politically Incorrect and you will see America. Not everyone, but unfortunately, the majority now. Babylon did it. Rome did it. Once again, history shows what happens. Count on it. I remain, SOROS P.S. I almost forgot. History means nothing in the moral or financial world.