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Pastimes : The California Energy Crisis - Information & Forum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: current trend who wrote (414)6/8/2001 1:47:50 AM
From: Raymond Duray  Respond to of 1715
 
It's Deja Vu, All Over Again. Remembering 1948

current trend & thread,

Here's something I happened upon following up on the California Energy Markets newsletter. A bit of historical perspective on the current situation. :)

newsdata.com

[[Note: Click on "Bottom Lines" for the article.]]
The Blackouts of '48

The economy was booming. People were moving into California at record rates, swelling the population by 10 percent in just two years. Electricity consumption averaged 9 percent growth per year. But there were shortages. It was a low-hydro year, and there weren't enough new power plants being built. There were rolling blackouts. Auto dealers couldn't light up their lots at night. Interruptible customers were cut frequently until both company owners and labor unions rose up against Pacific Gas & Electric.

Worst of all, there was no night baseball.

The year? 1948.

In a paper researched by Stuart Ross and delivered to the Institute of Governmental Studies at the University of California, Berkeley, in 1973 (in the midst of another energy crisis), Ross detailed a story from the past that sounds curiously like current events.

In the post-World War II era, when many were expecting a recession, GIs, like my own father, took their military pay and veterans' benefits and headed for sunny California. Tacky subdivisions sprang up like dandelions in the most unlikely places. Instead of a recession, a postwar economic boom fed the state.

But it all came to a near-screeching halt in 1948 when it just didn't rain enough to feed PG&E's reservoirs. In the years 1947 to 1950, precipitation fell below 50-year-average rainfall. And in 1948, 67 percent of electricity was derived from hydro in PG&E territory.

Ross totaled up the damage: There was compulsory rationing aimed at 20 percent demand reduction; Contra Costa County chemical plants had interruptible contracts and were curtailed much as PG&E curtailed customers early this year; there were rolling brownouts--large customers went without power on a scheduled basis--and a huge new federal dam that created Lake Shasta didn't help because the government did not feel it was its responsibility to dig a private utility out of its supply shortage hole.

"Stringent curtailments were imposed on public, commercial and outdoor lighting. Show windows in stores were ordered blacked out. Ballparks, theaters, new car lots and public monuments were put under tight restrictions," according to Ross. He said that the lighting cutbacks did not save that much energy--about half a percent--but the curtailments were a political move.

Fifty-three years ago, the state appointed Robert O'Brien as the "Emergency Power Director." Among his first actions, O'Brien ordered utilities not to cut off major customers unless failing to shed load would "imperil future operations." Residential customers were cut back 20 percent instead of 10 percent.

O'Brien found that extending daylight savings time past September helped, but lowering system voltage levels did not, as it was a labor-intensive stopgap. Local committees were established to review applications for new load.

Perhaps in contrast to California's new energy czar, S. David Freeman, O'Brien believed strongly in free markets and felt that the way to get out of the dilemma was to build more power plants, not decrease consumption.

The market, apparently, did call the shots. Despite mandatory curtailments, as soon as restrictions were lifted because of heavy rain and new power plants in 1949, conservation disappeared. "Demand was merely pent-up, not modified," Ross observed.

In eerie similarity, the federal government seemed to get a kick out of thwarting the state's plans for dealing with the crisis. The Bureau of Reclamation, Shasta Dam's owner, didn't want to sell to PG&E. According to Ross, the agency thought its first duty was to municipal utilities. PG&E objected. The federal government agreed to sell to PG&E on a day-to-day basis, but at high prices.

Another eerie coincidence was the first version of PG&E's plan to barge in a power plant. In the late 1940s, PG&E bought the engine half of a ship that had been wrecked off the coast and had it towed in and converted to a 5,000 KW plant in Humboldt County.

What we haven't seen yet in 2001 is a labor backlash, but it might not be that far away. In the 1940s crisis, there were no "out-of-state generators" to blame, but unions were not at all cozy with PG&E. As blackouts cascaded through steel mills and breweries, the unions lashed out at the utility for being deceptive and hiding the true depth of power shortages. Unions called for more public power, like the recently created Sacramento Municipal Utility District, which in December 1946 finally prevailed in its long struggle to carve out a piece of PG&E's service territory.

"The next time PG&E cries duplication to Congress in order to stop the development of public power in our state, we predict a horse laugh will go up in California that will be heard in Washington without the aid of ear trumpets," maintained the California State Federation of Labor [J.A. Savage].

The following Bottom Lines columns are also currently available online:
Environmentalists Worry that More Power Means More Smog/ Issue No. 615 / April 27, 2001
The Law of Unintended Consequences/ Issue No. 613 / April 13, 2001



To: current trend who wrote (414)6/8/2001 10:03:26 AM
From: current trend  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 1715
 
Reduction project may stave off blackouts

BY PAUL ROGERS
Mercury News

In a move that could significantly reduce the risk of blackouts in California this summer, a group of scientists working with the state's three major utilities has begun testing a plan to conserve large amounts of electricity by slightly reducing the voltage on the power grid.

The theory, known as ``conservation voltage regulation,'' is familiar to all motorists: Lift your foot from the accelerator and your car saves fuel.

If successful -- an early small-scale trial was encouraging -- the idea could save California's treasury millions and make the difference between keeping the lights on or off on some hot days. Yet state regulators must overcome fears about potential damage to appliances, and the loss of some profit to utilities, which would sell less electricity.

``It's a big deal. I think it's very promising,'' said Arthur Rosenfeld, a board member of the California Energy Commission and a physicist at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory in Berkeley.

Thursday, Rosenfeld held a conference call to plan tests with representatives of Pacific Gas & Electric, Southern California Edision, San Diego Gas & Electric, the governor's office and the Public Utilities Commission.

Utility representatives agreed to spend the next two weeks testing their substations to measure the feasibility of the idea, he said.

Under the plan, California's major utilities would reduce the voltage delivered to homes and businesses from the present level of 120 volts, to perhaps 118 volts or 116 volts.

Such a slight drop would cause almost no noticeable change on appliances and computers, but could dim some lights, supporters of the idea say. Meanwhile, it also could save between 400 to 1,000 megawatts of electricity. Put in perspective, that is enough energy for 300,000 to 750,000 homes, or the equivalent of instantly creating one or two new power plants.

``We believe that even if customers have to suffer through some low voltages, it might be better than having the power out,'' with stuck elevators and darkened traffic lights, said Ron Ferree, director of grid operations for Southern California Edison.

Last Friday, Edison tested the idea by turning down the voltage 4 percent, to about 117 volts, at a substation in Riverside County, for 15 minutes. It received no consumer complaints and reduced power demand about 2 percent, he said.

Edison can make the change by radio control. PG&E, which did not return calls Thursday, would have to manually adjust hundreds of substations.

Some experts are wary about potential pitfalls.

Home appliances, computers and other equipment are normally rated to run best at about 115 volts. If voltage is dropped too low, say below 110 volts, it can damage appliances by overheating motors.

``If you permanently lower the voltage, you are subjecting your motors and compressors and appliances to greater stress and strain,'' said Ken Giles, a press officer for the U.S. Consumer Products Safety Commission. ``That will raise temperatures and can burn out motors.''

The key question: Can utilities turn down the voltage just a bit to prevent blackouts, while not going too far?

``So long as you don't bring anybody's voltage down enough to damage their equipment, it will work,'' said Julian Ajello, supervisor for gas and electric safety at the Public Utilities Commission.

``You should aim not to go below 114 volts, with 110 as rock bottom,'' he said.

In 1978, during a previous energy crisis, Ajello helped write the rule that set the operating range for California's grid at between 114 and 120 volts. Back then, the state saved energy by reducing the top range, which was 126 volts.

The change reduced energy consumption in California 3 to 5 percent, a savings of about 4 million barrels of oil a year, according to trade journals of the time.

The latest plan grew out of experiments at PG&E's San Ramon testing center. PG&E scientists were working in April with Bill Wattenburg, a nuclear physicist and former professor of electrical engineering at UC-Berkeley.

Wattenburg, who also hosts a show on KGO radio, was testing an electric switch that could shut off partial power to homes and businesses during Stage 3 alerts.

During the tests, the researchers began turning down the voltage to appliances, televisions, computers, pool pumps, microwave ovens and other equipment.

``We took them down from 120 volts,'' Wattenburg said, ``all the way to 90 volts before things shut down harmlessly. I was flabbergasted.''

Wattenburg said he realized that small changes in voltage, perhaps down to 117 or 115 volts, could result in big power savings statewide.

``Here's a way to give the governor the equivalent of a new power plant or two,'' he said. ``That way he could play poker better with these power suppliers.''

Wattenburg noted that engineers design appliances to run on a range of voltages so they can handle fluctuations in power from urban to rural areas, or in other countries, or in homes with spotty wiring. A generation ago, most U.S. power was delivered to homes at 110 or 115 volts, he said.

Experts from around the country had varying degrees of support for the idea.

``You can do it. It's possible, but there is a difficult balancing act,'' said Ken Hall, manager of distribution issues at the Edision Electric Institute in Washington, D.C.

Electricity is moved throughout the state on a 32,000-mile network of transmission lines carrying current at up to 500,000 volts. It is ``stepped down'' in a series of substations and transformers for use in homes. In outlying areas, voltage can wane, so city residents might receive 120 volts while a rural area could get 115. Some fear that if the city level were cut too low, the corresponding drop might cause rural ``brownouts.''

``It is a good idea, certainly worth considering,'' said T.C. Cheng, professor of electrical engineering at the University of Southern California. ``But we have to raise it up to 120 afterward, because of the reliability of the system. But on a short-term basis, it's better than a blackout.''