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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: John Trader who wrote (47795)	6/8/2001 9:05:55 PM
From: Jerome	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

John, its time you started giving less weight to what the experts say. As you pointed out they were wrong on the downside and are probably wrong on the upside. Lets take one of your favorite stocks. Corning (GLW) I believe that since the first of April there have been about 14 downgrades. The only possible move from here would be an upgrade. Most of the downgrades changed the earnings estimates by a few cents. (hardly worth the trouble). The company insists that things are OK and earnings are on track with previous given guidance. I would say at this point buy Corning. (I do have a position that will get larger) Lets take a second stock. Oracle. For the past six weeks it has been nothing but warnings from analysts on how badly ORCL was going to miss earnings (about seven trading days from now). A lot of hype about IBM and MSFT munching on Oracle's customer base. But within the past week all the hype has died, and ORCL is recovering along the same path as CSCO. (from 15 to 22). Its important not to get too rational with the market. Because feelings matter a lot more than rationality. I'm long a lot of ORCL and GLW and I'm comfortable with both positions. Regards, Jerome

To: John Trader who wrote (47795)	6/8/2001 9:58:13 PM
From: Gottfried	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

John, OT *** telecom Even if 12-18 months till a turnaround is correct, there's no telling when the stocks will turn. Short of watching daily, one could ask ones broker for an alert e-mail if price exceeds X [Schwab does this], where X is just above the current channel. Lots of analyst bashing going on in magazines. Forbes joins in by maligning the 'prediction wizards'. forbes.com free membership required. I have something good to say about analysts: they provide earnings estimates. I had a small investment in a stock with ONE analyst covering the company. Now he got tired of it and there's no earnings estimate at all. Gottfried

To: John Trader who wrote (47795)	6/9/2001 11:46:56 AM
From: Katherine Derbyshire	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

>>There seems to be a bit of a disconnect between the statements from carriers such as "data traffic doubling every 100 days", and the idea that this sector will be in the dumps for years. I don't know the answer, but it sure seems like the money will come from somewhere to meet user demand for this build-out of the internet.<< There may be an analogy to the semiconductor industry here. In the 1996 downturn, unit volumes were extremely high. DRAM bit volume skyrocketed, in part because DRAMs were suddenly very cheap. But none of the DRAM companies were making any money, so none of them bought equipment. Equipment sales recovered when chip average selling prices did. Likewise, how does the cost of bandwidth affect data traffic? If the bandwidth suppliers have no pricing power, then they have no incentive and no ability to build more bandwidth. Katherine