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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Mani1 who wrote (43513)	6/9/2001 12:34:48 AM
From: kapkan4u	Respond to of 275872

<I don?t understand this rally in the semi?s. Eventually bad news will be interpreted as such.> This rally is a fake, but shorting AMD is the wrong way to play that IMHO. I assume a 2-3 year long bear market in semis and in particular in telecom semis and equipment. Buying Jan, 2003 puts with expiration price 30-40% below market in the likes of MU, AMAT, JNPR, BRCM, INTC, etc., during rallies is the way to go. Of course the big bucks have already been made with this strategy. Kap

To: Mani1 who wrote (43513)	6/9/2001 8:55:08 AM
From: niceguy767	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Mani: "I don't understand this rally in the semi's. Eventually bad news will be interpreted as such." My take (which may not surprise you) is that the bad news and more is already factored into AMD... Looking forward, recovery signs are on schedule (PC market stabilizing according to both AMDand INTC) given that it has been 6 months since the first fed rate cut back in January...The first fed rate cut has been followed by a series of aggressive additional cuts over the succeeding 5 month interval, and if history is any guide this time round, one can anticipate an equally aggressive bounce off the current economic bottom over the ensuing 6 months, as recovery generally lags fed action by 6 to 9 months...The market, according to many, looks ahead 6 months, and if the foregoing scenario pans out, then one can anticipate a significant rally in the general indices carrying the DOW to 14000, the Nas to 3000 plus and the SOXX to 900 plus over the remaining part of the year as visibility going forward for companies begins to, once again, look at improving earnings off the current q2 bottom...Current P/E's, on the basis of upwardly revised outlooks 3 to 6 months out may well be readily justified at current levels... Certainly, in such an improving environment, imo, a P/E three times its current, can be justified for AMD who has weathered the economic storm of the past 12 months better than any other tech company that I'm aware of... Mani, there have to be 1000's of stocks for which there exists 100 times more reason for shorting than AMD...AMD's price looks poised to explode upwards over the next while from both a technical and fundamental perspective...

To: Mani1 who wrote (43513)	6/9/2001 11:24:14 AM
From: Jim McMannis	Respond to of 275872

RE:"I just continue to think that this so called recovery is based on historic trends and has nothing to do with the actual happenings of the market. Anticipation RE:"Economy is not showing any sign that is improving and Europe which has been AMD's strength is deteriorating. It also does not seem that AMD can continue to gain market share to make up for the deterioration in the overall PC market. SMP volume should be very low, but mobile should catch on by next quarter." Anticipation RE:"I don't understand this rally in the semi's. Eventually bad news will be interpreted as such." Often, when interpreting market psycology, one much "think in reverse". When all the bad news has been anticipated, the market will have bottomed... Jim