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To: Mark Adams who wrote (107826)	6/9/2001 9:54:36 AM
From: Ilaine	Respond to of 436258

Mark, have you taken a look at the data and research the Federal Reserve has done with its triennial Survey of Consumer Finance? Lots of interesting stuff there. The data the gloom-and-doomers rely on ultimately comes either from the Federal Reserve, the US Department of Labor, the Bureau of Economic Analysis, or the Department of the Census, so why not go straight to the source? federalreserve.gov federalreserve.gov One gloom-and-doomer I think is very reliable for data and analysis is Paul Kasriel, chief economist at Northern Trust. ntrs.com ntrs.com

To: Mark Adams who wrote (107826)	6/9/2001 10:46:29 AM
From: Ilaine	Respond to of 436258

Mark, you might want to start here - Flats found an economist who appears to specialize in debunking economic myths. members.home.net But I still recommend Kasriel, too. I think there's plenty of real stuff to worry about, without wasting time worrying about things that aren't true.

To: Mark Adams who wrote (107826)	6/11/2001 10:20:56 AM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 436258

Mark, the point again is that the growth in the GSEs balance sheets has begun to divorce itself from the underlying economic growth rate, to an incredible extent. so far this year their balance sheets are growing at 20% annualized. FMNs leverage is now a cool 155:1 - it's an accident (read: tax payer bail-out) waiting to happen. i agree that stock buybacks on credit have also contributed to the growth in corporate debt, but they are just one factor among many. it's however an example of an especially dangerous use of debt. regarding consumers, we see that mortgage and revolving credit defaults, as well as individual bankruptcy filings are on a steep upward trajectory so far this year. many people are living from paycheck to paycheck...and month after month the rise in consumer spending outpaces the growth in incomes. the big increase in bankruptcy filings has coincided with the recent increase in lay-offs, so apparently there ARE lots of people a mere week away from bankruptcy. the following charts demonstrate the link between increasing consumer debt and the increase in bankruptcies: law.missouri.edu