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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: TobagoJack who wrote (4615)	6/11/2001 10:45:58 AM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 74559

Jay, thanks...i'm going to go through the linked articles tonight. just one brief comment: i think we are at a point in the longwave where the monetary authorities are powerless to stop the secular deflationary trend. note that for instance DRAM prices have collapsed by another 45% over the past 8 weeks. the accumulated malinvestments, industrial overcapacities and huge private sector debt burden can't be cured with lower interest rates. what is needed (and what will happen, imo) is a typical k-winter liquidation period, with all the attendant unpleasantness. by this time next year i believe even the bears will be surprised by the extent of the economic collapse. imho. cheers! hb