To: lorne who wrote (71433 ) 6/10/2001 1:45:10 PM From: Alex Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 116770 War in Mideast by October, Report Says 6:50 am PST, 8 June 2001 An intelligence firm has said Israel could be facing a full-scale regional war by October, and that top Israeli commanders are becoming frustrated by Prime Minister Ariel Sharon's hesitation to destroy the Palestinian Authority's infrastructure. Texas-based Stratfor.com, a global economic and military intelligence analyst firm, said in a report Thursday that Israeli military leaders were "disillusioned" with Sharon, and believes he may have lost his nerve. "Sharon had pledged over and over that he would order an attack that would destroy the Palestinian Authority and exile Chairman Yasser Arafat from the region," the analytical report said. "That opportunity came over the weekend when a Palestinian suicide bomber sent by the Islamic Hamas group blew himself up and killed another 20 Israelis," said Stratfor. However, the next day, June 2, Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Shaul Mofaz presented to Sharon a plan for a massive bombing sweep that would destroy the PA infrastructure and lead to the exile of Arafat. "But Sharon, under massive pressure from the United States and the European Union, said no. Arafat had pledged a cease-fire, and Sharon did not want to be seen as the one who ruined the opportunity to end the 8-month-old war against the Palestinians," Stratfor.com said. According to the report, the result of that has been some "deep soul-searching" within the upper echelons of the Israel Defense Force. Top commanders, the report said, believe Sharon is following exactly the same path as his predecessor, former Prime Minister Ehud Barak, whom Sharon defeated soundly in February. "Barak was held back from ending the war against the Palestinians by the refusal of then-President Bill Clinton to support a drive to exile Arafat. Barak felt that without U.S. support, Israel would be alone against the world," the report said. Now, because of the civilian leadership's lack of will, IDF commanders believe Arafat, over the next several months, will continue to wage his campaign of Palestinian terror against Israel, but will "keep it below Sharon's level of tolerance." Meanwhile, his allies in the region – Iran, Iraq, and the Hizbollah terrorist organization – "will rearm for a regional war against Israel," the report said. "As the military brass sees it, Iran, Iraq, the Palestinians and Hizbollah want a regional war. Syria and Egypt are preparing for such a development. The brass is divided over whether Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak will join such a coalition when the time comes," analysts said, in the report. "In every meeting with U.S. officials, Mubarak has pledged he will stop such a war. But in public, the Egyptian president has been talking very tough," said the report. The "time frame" for such a war is "between October and the end of this year," analysts said, according to the report. News © 2001 to: 7am.com