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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: ig who wrote (17494)	6/10/2001 3:05:53 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Respond to of 30051

International, unfortunately, I do not have the exact future maps, but I do develop "guidelines". Right now, I have a potential low in August, and only if we do not develop a series of very one sided sentiment indicators, another retest in October. Like you, I have a very long term view, and I have summarized for the last three years with the statement, the market is going to be in a broad trading range for 7 to 10 years (we rapidly are getting to the close of year three) in a range between 6000 to 13500 on the Dow and 1900 to 5300 on the Naz. Late last year, I changed the bottom part of the Naz to 1400 (due to the failure of the post May rally to get to within 5% of the March high, which I wrongly expected, see a post on the MDD in April of last year, or PM me, I think I have a URL for it.) The low in August, I expect to be within 30 naz points of 1620, but there is always a "but". We need to reach the 1850 or so toward the end of this month, without developing very excessive readings in sentiment indicators. That could lead to a short rally until a bout a week or two after July fourth and then resumption of the decline into August. If we get the type of wash out low I expect in August, that could end this phase, IMHO, of this suffering. I have stated before, that another dip in early October could be awaiting if that August low is "unimpressive" just as the late March early April low was. After that, I see an extremely fast and furious bull move which should get us to the 13500 on the Dow and the 3800 to 4200 on the Naz. Sometime next year, however, the seed of a new bear market may be sown, and that one may be accompanied with a real recession (unlike the current bear, which I believe will be tagged as a recession-less bear market). Zeev