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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: bobby beara who wrote (78346)	6/10/2001 12:51:31 PM
From: SOROS	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

I vote for a return to historical PE averages for ALL of the indexes. That's 17 on the S & P. What is tyhe Dow and the Nas? Looks like we drop about 30% from here???? Of course, war in the Middle East could make it 50%.

To: bobby beara who wrote (78346)	6/10/2001 2:10:13 PM
From: KymarFye	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

hmmmmm... the classic measuring implication on your alien bubblehead and baby-shoulders would be the COMPX at -500. There's usually support at 0, but I'll hold through the last breakdown if you do. Anyone know the tax implications on a short sale when the stock goes into negative numbers? A breakdown off the other, shorter-term h&s that everyone and their dogs are licking their chops to trade would have to spelunk through the double gap ca. 2000 and aim for the big nap somewhere between the 1900 area congestion band the low lows. But the pointy-headed TA researcher at the Fed (see recent TASC) has pointy-headed out that H&S's in equity mkts. fail a lot, though they do show volume surges - suggesting that traders line up ready to trade them, only to get their own pointy heads handed back to them. So it's still all at the speculative speculation stage for now. The networkers may be heading for new lows, or they may be in a classic markdown following a classic markup signifying not very much. One-day wonders notwithstanding, again and again it's coulda broken down big time, coulda broken out big time, but instead of bigtime break-dancing it's been smalltime line-dancing on pathetic volume. The breakouts back down. The breakdowns bounce. It's a snoozy trading range, post-crash monotonous languor with minimal public participation and not much institutional until further notice - like the cartoon that Trader Vic (I think) mentions where the news reporter says, "Stocks were unchanged today, as everyone was happy with them right where they are." Up is too high. Down is too low. Could be an upsloping neckline, could be an minor uptrend. The Fed vs. PEs. Niles vs. Jacobs. American Spirit vs. Lucretius. "Get ready to ruuuuuuuu[m]bllllllle" vs. "several more weeks." IPOs and junk bonds and penny stocks coming back into fashion, but JNPR down 20% on a warning, but BRCM up 10% on its warning, but BRCM back to where it started on JNPR's warning, but... It's a buts and shoulders, or butts and butts with knees and elbows... One history vs. another history. Could be settled tomorrow. May have to wait until next year or the year after. Until the alarm bells ring, I'll stick to the sub-hour charts and try to build mountains out of molehills.

To: bobby beara who wrote (78346)	6/10/2001 3:19:59 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Bobby, I think we are in trouble, we agree, and I could not have said it better. (by the way, due to the lack of clarity intrinsic to the English langauge, this sentence has tow opposite meanings, not necessarily congruenmt with each other <VBG>) Zeev

To: bobby beara who wrote (78346)	6/10/2001 6:43:36 PM
From: eichler	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 99985

bb, <get ready to ruuuuuuuuuublllllllle> OK, going to buy as much of that Russian Currency I can get my hands on....ggg Been thinking about the $compx chart quite a bit for the last week, and there's been much great input on this thread during that time to help my thoughts come together. The complex head and shoulders chart of the Naz can be represented by the following parameters: Left shoulder 4/18-5/15 head 5/16-5/30 Right shoulder 5/31-present Neckline connecting the highs of 4/20, 5/2, 6/7 Shoulder line connecting the lows of 4/25, 5/16, 5/31 Shoulder and neck lines form a slightly up-sloping channel with the upper boundary around 2265 and the lower boundary currently around 2100. Given the duration of the the left shoulder, it seems to me unlikely that the pattern will resolve very quickly as the right shoulder is only a week old. I suppose it's only my symmetrical-luving mind which would like to see the right shoulder build out more; kinda doubt there's any reason why it couldn't resolve sooner. Just the same, I'm theorizing and predicting here that the comp takes a trip now to the shoulder line, and then just for fun, takes another trip back up to the neckline. I'm thinking a trading range is likely for the next couple of weeks before the ruble (I mean rumble) begins in earnest. Given the break of the trendline on the 60 min chart of the move from 5/31-6/7, it looks like a no-brainer that the next couple of days action should be to the downside...suspecting at this point that the shoulder line will again save the comp from falling lower. I'll be watching the vix and volume for clues over the next weeks for evidence that the real rumble has begun. Of course, a break above the neck or below the shoulder should signal something significant either way. So, I guess I missed the Sundae Beach Party...darn...gotta quit puttin in these 7 day work weeks! LOL At least I can go home and watch the 76ers give the Lakers a run for their money in PhillyLand and have a beechin time... Taking the points on that rumble..... e