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Strategies & Market Trends : Steve's Channelling Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: sergio who wrote (17509)	6/10/2001 4:54:09 PM
From: Zeev Hed	Respond to of 30051

China impacts is not going to be a sudden event, IMTO, it will take until late next year before changes in China's own economic outlook will have any impact on us. By then, we would have gone through another cycle of attempting to serve as the locomotive for the world's economy, with the result that our balance of payments deficit will get close to 5% of our GDP, that will have to be drastically modified, since a major fall in the US currency will have to occur sooner or later if that were to happen. That will be the type of time when gold will once more flourish, and unfortunately, a world wide real recession may start. If that is what happens, the Republicans may be handed a severe defeat during the 2002 elections, and Bush may be setting himself up for a single term presidency in 2004. Whether these things happen or not, I don't know, but some one will have to pay the piper sooner or later for the dual whamo of excessive trade deficit and excessive printing of money right now. Before we pay that price, some good chunk of that money will come into the equities markets, and hopefully, we will "sucker" in enough foreign money into what will be again overvalued markets, to pay for our follies. Zeev