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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Zeev Hed who wrote (78364)	6/11/2001 12:54:07 AM
From: t2	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Zeev, The hedge fund run by Trimtabs is short the Nasdaq100. You can bet that Maria will be talking about how Charles Biederman is saying that there is too much supply of issues to be absorbed by market inflows. Watch for it tomorrow morning and see if it affects trading at the start of the day. The point I would make is that he runs a hedge fund that is already bearish on the Nasdaq100 and he gets CNBC take his message to the air, making viewers think it is some sort of unbiased research. I am sure there are lots of hedge funds leaning short. Short interest has not declined much and is still near record levels. Now these traders will hope that the individual mutual fund investor throws in the towel...leading to major redemptions. Wrong time of year for that. That story has already played out this year. That is the principal reason I disagree with you. That is also my reason for thinking that your 1850 target is just way off target and in the wrong direction. It assumes that the pattern now will be the same as it was months ago. If that bet is being made by a lot of traders...lookout! The Nasdaq changes directions very fast to the upside and in an explosive manner. It is only prospects of bad news in warnings season that is keeping the market down. The bad news is EXPECTED to be very bad. Expectation is the key. JNPR reaction was a bit of a surprise to me (given BRCM earlier) but the trading halts may or may not have been a factor in that story....ie. the halt's effects on traders psychology. That unknown should not be a factor starting Monday. That is my bullish case for the Nasdaq. JMHO of course. We shall see how it unfolds. BTW--I am still open to changing my mind on my bullishness depending upon how the market goes in the next 2 to 3 days.