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To: ms.smartest.person who wrote (1392)	6/11/2001 3:33:04 AM
From: ms.smartest.person	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 2248

Buoyant PC sales forecast in Asia-Pacific LYDIA ZAJC and TIM CULPAN Asia-Pacific computer shipments will remain relatively buoyant this year, according to research house International Data Corp (IDC), despite revised forecasts that show the United States will post its first year-on-year decline. PC shipments in Asia-Pacific, excluding Japan, are expected to rise 19 per cent over last year. Some areas would be affected strongly by the US slump while others would sail ahead, said Kitty Fok, IDC's associate director of PC research in Hong Kong. The figures take into account shipments of desktop computers, notebooks and Intel servers. Last year was good for China shipments, with 39 per cent growth, Ms Fok said. "Of course, we are not predicting this year will be as strong," she said. "We are hoping the second half will pick up a little bit." Ms Fok said Australia would be slow, as it had been for the past few years, but orders in China were expected to increase 30 per cent compared with last year. It remained strong as there was a low penetration rate for personal computers and the consumer market was growing quickly. IDC issued its revised forecasts for PC shipments, taking a previously expected 2.2 per cent US gain down to a 6.3 per cent decline this year over 2000. The drop is the first in US history. IDC did not revise its Asia-Pacific forecasts. In Taiwan, the makers of motherboards are hoping for improvements in the second half, compared with a poor first half. Vincent Wong, a product specialist at mid-sized motherboard maker Gigabyte, said: "We will definitely feel the impact of the downturn. The second half will be up, but right now it is quite down. Our goal is just to maintain sales levels of last year." Gigabyte produces about 700,000 motherboards a month for high-end destinations in the US or Europe. Tony Yang, marketing manager at smaller company AOpen, said he hoped the market would improve in the second half. "The first quarter was good, the second was very bad. We have high expectations for the second half," said Mr Yang. "The US will be flat, or maybe a drop for us this year. We will be pushing into China or Japan. China is a future focus." The second half of any year tends to see a rise in PC shipments as computers are bought for the back-to-school season. Also, companies generally spend the remainder of their IT budgets before year-end, providing a traditional fourth-quarter boost. Due to the US slump, percentage growth in worldwide unit shipments was revised downward to 5.8 per cent from 10.3 per cent, IDC said. "With the United States clearly in the tank right now, the question is to what extent Europe and Asia will follow," said Loren Loverde, director of IDC's worldwide quarterly PC tracker. "The heavily export-dependent countries in Asia could also be vulnerable to the US slowdown, although low penetration rates in many countries leave room for double-digit growth for the foreseeable future." Research analyst Tim Ariowitsch, of Goldman Sachs, said the brokerage had predicted global PC units would decline 2 per cent to 4 per cent this year. Mr Ariowitsch said it was a tough year, but the second half would see its typical surge compared with the first six months. The second half would see a series of developments to prompt computer sales, including a push for Intel's Pentium 4 sales and the Windows Office XP suite, he said. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SCMP.com is the premier information resource on Greater China. With a click, you will be able to access information on Business, Markets, Technology and Property in the territory. Bookmark SCMP.com for more insightful and timely updates on Hong Kong, China, Asia and the World. Voted the Best Online newspaper outside the US and brought to you by the South China Morning Post, Hong Kong's premier English language news source. technology.scmp.com