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To: Don Knowlton who wrote (443)	6/11/2001 3:53:22 PM
From: Raymond Duray	Respond to of 1715

Hi Don, Thanks for the historical information on the Asian DRAM futures market. I was unaware of its existence. :) I've come to the conclusion that any industry with high capital costs, high fixed costs, and low variable costs will be highly cyclical. A futures market could smooth things a little, but the peaks and valleys are still huge. I've come to the exact opposite conclusion. In spite of industry boilerplate about futures markets helping to stablize prices, I think the real goal of many market participants is to create maximum volatility for the sake of profiteering on irrational price swings. I'm joined in this view by former Sec. Rodriguez of OPEC, who in commenting in an article in Petroleum World petroleumworld.com last October, was very explicit in condemning the futures market for adding about US$6 to the cost of a barrel of crude oil at the time that oil spiked to $37/bbl. His case was compelling. So, instead of smoothing prices, the boys in the pits tend to exacerbate the volatility and price swings. The "stabilizing" effect is just a dross, a myth, a gloss on the gambling that is shockingly going on here. <w> Best, Ray