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Technology Stocks : MRV Communications (MRVC) opinions? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Link Lady who wrote (33110)	6/11/2001 5:06:14 PM
From: NDBFREE	Respond to of 42804

Found this on the MSN financial site and since we are all interested in 3G (for Cescomm sake) I thought people might find it of interest: "SNS Tech Trends Suddenly, 3G wireless looks like a contender again France and Germany take their foot off spectrum-holders’ necks, and South Korea devises a novel approach: letting bidders keep enough cash to actually build the network. Also, why the axis of the tech world now runs from Redmond to … Lisbon? By Mark Anderson Hardly a day goes by without receiving some kind of bad news about third-generation wireless services: how much debt they've piled onto telecom operator balance sheets, how much more they'll cost to actually build out, how much longer they'll take before finally getting lit up, and how much more doubt you should have about whether they ever will. I got another one of these from a top Wall Street analyst just this morning. And then there's my view. I've already told readers of my newsletter that I think non-legacy license holders in major markets will accelerate the 3G deployment schedule by rolling out their own unencumbered systems earlier, rather than later, thereby forcing the hand of their competitors. And I've already suggested that it is likely even those spectrum holders in Europe who are debt-laden, thanks to the extortionate 3G auction procedures, will see unexpected cash-flow relief in the form of long-term low-interest government loans as they head into the building phase of this rollout. Now you can add one more reason to ignore the business press on this issue. On June 5, both France and Germany provided additional relief to license winners in a process that is rapidly forcing analysts to recast their gloomy spreadsheets. In the French case, readers will recall the collapse of the French auction, as only two of four winners were declared -- at lofty base prices -- after the rest of the field withdrew. Now comes the French government to say that it will allow a possible reduction in costs to the next two bidders, backed by a much longer (20 to 30 years vs. immediate) payback schedule. Germany stepped up a few hours later, indicating that all license winners would be allowed to share core buildout costs (including stations, towers and antennae, surprising many), thereby reducing estimates of cost per operator by huge amounts (perhaps $12 billion in savings). Obvious beneficiaries will be Vodafone (VOD, news, msgs), Telefonica (TEF, news, msgs), Deutsche Telekom (DT, news, msgs), British Telecom (BTY, news, msgs) and Royal KPN (KPN, news, msgs). While the European Union has taken the point of view of trying to limit how much countries should help bid winners in order to encourage competition (?), Germany's regulators obviously have taken the view that they would like to do all that they can to help bid winners, to encourage an early and successful rollout of 3G. Where is Asia in all this? At some time during the same run of hours, Hong Kong announced that its auction conditions would not be cast only as a "beauty contest," which I prefer (two phases; qualified bidders must prove their ability to build out the Net), but that the four spectrum winners would be allowed to pay for their licenses out of fees later generated -- with bids taken as royalty percentages, thereby conserving all bidder cash for a quick rollout. (They will also have to reserve up to 30% of bandwidth capacity for small entrants). Now watch all of the major market countries scramble to match these points. Ignore the business magazines." MSN item switched subjects