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To: Mark Fowler who wrote (126378)	6/11/2001 7:31:36 PM
From: craig crawford	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 164684

>> Huh! Commodities are a very sensitive to economic cycles. << yes, but not necessarily in the way you think. mark, do i have to remind you of the seventies? did commodities explode or not? did we have a lot of growth then? we've had huge growth over the last decade and commodities have been weak! commodities bottomed in 1932 and rose sharply until 1950. didn't we have a depression for most of that time? a more recent example is oil. do you see oil tanking even in the face of this world-wide economic slowdown? hardly. electricity, is that cheap these days? how about gas? coal? i think there is ample evidence from many different time periods to support my claim that there is more to commodities than just economic cycles. also you have to take into account global demand, not just what we use in the states. don't forget demand is only half the equation, there is supply to consider as well.