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Strategies & Market Trends : DAYTRADING/SWINGTRADING STOCKS with INTRADAY INVESTMENTS -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Ramsey Su who wrote (239)	6/11/2001 7:32:08 PM
From: OZ	Respond to of 565

However, I have learned enough that it is more important to be disciplined when trading using TA, rather than being just accurate. Well T/A traders make all there money from one of two versions of accuracy. The the most widely known (but not better) version of accuracy is the percentage of winning trades. The other accuracy that actually gives most of us room to prosper, is the accurate projection of risk and reward in a trade. Charts tell us when we are wrong and we know that before we get in the trade. So if the get out point is one point above our T/A based entry, then our risk is one point. The other piece of this is how far the chart says it will move in our favor until support is found. If we see that it is 3 points below, then our reward probability is 3 points for a total R/R of 3/1. If all our trades were 3 to 1 we would hardly even have to be accurate in terms of percent winners. A 40 percent accuracy with a 3/1 R/R will build wealth indeed. Conversely, if one is scalping and winning 80 percent of the time, a 1/1 R/R would be enough to make an easy living. But Discipline is the glue that holds all of this together and makes it possible. Discipline creates the accuracy in both examples described above. Everyone is a guru on these threads SO true. Specially in a bull market. But very few people here make a living doing this and I think those are the ones worth conversing with. The good thing is many have been weeded out in the last year. Having been successful with my FA, I would be very reluctant to give up what has worked. However, I am open minded and would always like to improve on past performance. Well i do not think you should ever get out of the FA that has worked for you so far. But it seems that you build these models in your head about what is going to happen and what "should happen" or "should have happened". I think T/A helps to create the IF / THEN scenarios that will tell when your models are being confirmed on the chart. By the way, as far as T goes. If I was as bearish on the stock as you, I think it is in an almost perfect position to short right here. There is an amazingly natural and tight stop loss at 22.25 to 22.60 depending on your anticipated hold. That is less than a 3/4 of a point risk for a stock that may really be in position to tank from here. If this thing breaks 20 this baby is dead. So if you want a trade with a small stop loss on it in anticipation of the Fundamental breakdown that you feel is around the corner, This would be IMO a good entry here or you can use a more technical entry like below todays lows. The extra bit of confirmation will widen your stop a bit but it is a very popular way of doing it. Lets see if Steve sees what I see in the chart. I usually wrap Fundamentals around my core T/A o a position trade but since you have strong conviction on the future of T there is no reason to do it the other way around to suit your needs..... Hope this Helps, Oswald